Market Navigator: US Grocery Retailing—Exploring Growth, Inflation, Competition, Trends and Strategies

Published – June 2023

Each Market Navigator report offers an in-depth, data-rich view of a retail, consumer or technology sector and is packed with data on sectors, segments, companies and consumers. Our analysts discuss at greater length the sector themes they are observing and the insights they are forming on their markets. We intend these definitive guides to serve as points of reference to those in the retail ecosystem, guiding readers’ strategic decision-making and assisting them in tapping opportunities and navigating disruption in retail and adjacent industries.

In this Market Navigator report, Coresight Research explores the US grocery market in the post-pandemic retail environment. We provide the size and trajectory of the US grocery retail market for 2023 and beyond and critical factors impacting market growth. We also discuss e-commerce penetration, distribution channels, the competitive landscape, key themes and innovators, as well as blue-sky thinking for the market.

Data in this research report include:

• Total sales and year-over-year sales growth for the US grocery retail market for 2018–2027E
• Total sales and year-over-year sales growth for the US online food and beverage market for 2018–2027E
• Leading grocery retailers in the US ranked by revenue, share of the total grocery market and operating margin
• Estimated distribution of US grocery sales broken down by retailer type and key product categories
• Store numbers and store traffic metrics for leading retailers in the market
• Proprietary US consumer survey data—retailers and categories that grocery shoppers have shopped in the past three months

Introduction

What We Think

• Prepare for Consolidation
• Consumers Will Remain Value-Focused
• Tighter Margins Are on the Horizon
• Sustainability Will Remain Crucial
• Social Responsibility Will Drive Loyalty

Blue-Sky Thinking

• Industry Concentration
• Consumer Demographic Shifts
• Vertical Farming
• 3D Food Printing

The US Grocery Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity
• Grocery Retail Sales by Channel
• Online Grocery Market

Market Factors

• Short-Term Factors
• Long-Term Factors

The Companies

• Competitive Landscape: Retailers
• Store Numbers and Changes
• Store Traffic
• Benchmarking to BEST
• Where Consumers Are Shopping and What They Are Buying

Themes We Are Watching

• Responsive
• Engaging
• Socially Responsible
• Expansive
• Tech-Enabled

Macro Context

• Unemployment and Wages
• Real Disposable Income Per Capita
• Savings Rate
• Interest Rates and the Housing Market
• Consumer Spending
• Gasoline Prices

Retail Innovators

• Bolt
• Swiftly
• Standard AI

Methodology

Appendix: Ranking Retailers by Store Numbers

Appendix: About the Coresight Research RESET Framework

Appendix: About the Coresight Research EnCORE Framework

Appendix: Company Profiles

• Albertsons Companies (NYSE: ACI)
• BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ)
• Costco (NASDAQ: COST)
• Dollar General (NYSE: DG)
• Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR)
• Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (ENXTAM: AD)
• Kroger (NYSE: KR)
• Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT)
• Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ: SFM)
• Walmart (NYSE: WMT)
• Weis Markets (NYSE: WMK)

75-page PDF report

Ahold Delhaize, Albertsons, Aldi, Amazon, Costco, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kroger, Publix, Save A Lot, Target, Trader Joe’s and Walmart

1. US Grocery Retail Market: Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
2. US Estimated Distribution of Grocery Retail Market Sales (%)
3. US Grocery Retail Market: Segmentation by Key Product Categories (%)
4. US Online Food and Beverages: Total Retail Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
5. US Online Share of Food Retail Spend (%)
6. US Grocery E-Commerce: Top 10 Food and Beverage Categories by Sales
7. Food-at-Home Inflation and Total Inflation (YoY % Change)
8. Finished Consumer Foods PPI Vs. Food-at-Home CPI (YoY % Change)
9. Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Grocery as a Result (% of Respondents)
10. US: Single-Person Households and Population of Those Aged 65+ (Thousands)
11. All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Food Products from in the Past Two Weeks by Average Age and Household Income (2022)
12. US: African American, Asian-American and Hispanic or Latino Populations (Thousands)
13. Total US Food Spending: Food-at-Home vs. Food-Away-from-Home (%)
14. Leading US Grocery Retailers: US Revenues (USD Bil.)
15. Top Five US Grocery Retailers: Share of Total Market (%)
16. Leading US Grocery Retailers: Operating Margins (%)
17. Key Comparable Metrics of Selected US Grocery Retailers (Ordered by FY2022 Revenue)
18. US: Major Grocery Retailers’ Store Numbers, Ranked by Number of Stores (FY18–FY22)
19. US Major Grocery Sector Retailers’ Store Traffic: YoY % Change
20. The BEST Framework
21. BEST Framework and Benchmarking
22. US Grocery Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Groceries In-Store in the Past Three Months (% of Respondents)
23. US Grocery Shoppers: Grocery Categories They Have Purchased In-Store in the Past Three Months (% of Respondents)
24. US Grocery Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Groceries Online in the Past Three Months (% of Respondents)
25. US Grocery Shoppers: Grocery Categories They Have Purchased Online in the Past Three Months (% of Respondents)
26. Completed M&A Transactions in the US Food and Grocery Sector: Value (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Total Number of Deals (Right Axis)
27. Grocery Discount Channel and Total US Grocery Market (YoY % Growth)
28. Aldi US, Grocery Outlet, Lidl and Save A Lot: Total US Store Count
29. All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Food Products from in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents)
30. Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar: Total US Store Count
31. H-E-B and Central Market Store in Texas: Average In-Store Visit Duration (Mins)
32. Grocery Retailers: Technologies They Plan To Invest In Over the Next Two Years To Track and Manage Food Waste (% of Responses)
33. The Coresight Research EnCORE Framework
34. US Adults: Those Who Reported That There Was Either “Sometimes” or “Often” Not Enough To Eat in the Past Week (% of US Population)
35. US SNAP Recipients (Mil.)
36. SNAP Benefits: Total Amount Redeemed (USD Bil.)
37. Major SNAP Retailers: Count and Redemption Amount for Fiscal 2021
38. US Food and Beverage Private-Label and Name Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales Value Growth (YoY % Change)
39. US Food and Beverage Sales: Name Brand and Private-Label Sales Value (% of Total Sales)*
40. US Food and Beverage Sales: Private-Label Sales Value (Share by Department; %)
41. US Instant Commerce Market: Projected Potential Market Size (USD Bil.) and CAGR (%)
42. Ocado-Kroger CFC Locations
43. Timeline of MFC Deployment Announcements in the Grocery Space
44. In-Store Fulfillment, Centralized Fulfillment and Micro-Fulfillment Centers
45. US Retail Media Advertising Revenue (USD Bil.)
46. US Unemployment Rate (Left Axis, %) and US Average Hourly Wages (Right Axis, %)
47. US Annualized Real Disposable Income Per Capita (USD)
48. Personal Saving Rate (%)
49. US Real and Nominal Consumer Spending Growth (YoY % Change)
50. US Regular All Formulations Gas Price (USD per Gallon)*