Holiday 2024: Early US Retail Outlook

Published – June 2024

Take an early look at the likely trajectory in retail demand for the 2024 holiday season! We present our retail sales growth projections and discuss consumer sentiment, inflation, the holiday calendar and more.

Data in this research report include:

• Year-over-year change in total US retail sales—actual and projected, May 2023–May 2025
• Proprietary survey findings—US consumers’ spending expectations and actual behavior for the holiday season, 2023 vs. 2024; expectations for their personal financial situation and the economy; changes in shopping habits in response to inflation
• Latest metrics for leading indicators of US retail sales—including unemployment rate, wages and consumer sentiment
• US CPI, October 2023–May 2024
• November and December 2024 calendars
• Seasonal weather forecast

Introduction

Market Scale and Opportunity

Early US Holiday Retail Outlook: Coresight Research Analysis

1. Consumer Expectations
2. The Consumer Context
3. A Narrower Holiday Calendar
4. Weather

What We Think

• The Coresight Research View on the US Consumer Economy
• Implications from This Report

Notes

9-page PDF report

Amazon, Burlington Stores, Kohl’s, Macy’s, Shein, Target, Temu, The TJX Companies, Walmart

1. YoY % Change in US Retail Sales (ex. Automobiles and Gasoline): Actual and Projected
2. Summary of Positive and Negative Impacts on Holiday-Season 2024 Spending
3. Respondents Who Spend on the Holiday Season: Expected and Actual Spending vs. One Year Earlier (% of Respondents)
4. Respondents Who Spend on the Holiday Season: Expectations for Their Personal Financial Situation vs. Holiday Season One Year Earlier (% of Respondents)
5. US Respondents: Whether They Expect Their Household Financial Situation/the Economy To Get Better or Worse Over the Next 12 Months—Net Better (% of Respondents, Four-Week Rolling Average)
6. US: Leading Indicators of Retail Sales as of June 18, 2024
7. US Consumer Prices (YoY % Change)
8. US Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Nongrocery as a Result (% of Respondents)
9. November and December 2024 Calendars