Reasons to Read

Understand the resilience of US retail sales amid weakening underlying consumer fundamentals. Explore proprietary, machine-learning-driven projections as momentum softens amid rising inflation, declining savings and uneven demand trends heading into late 2026 and early 2027.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• How is US retail sales growth expected to evolve after its midyear peak in June, and what does the projected slowdown signal for late 2026 and early 2027?
• What is driving the current resilience in retail sales, and to what extent are temporary supports—such as tax refunds—masking underlying weakness in consumer demand?
• How are inflation, declining savings and weakening real incomes reshaping consumer spending capacity, and what risks do these trends pose to future growth?
• What explains the growing divergence between headline retail strength and weakening consumer fundamentals, and how is this reflected in the declining Retail Outlook Score?
• How are elevated energy costs, softening housing activity and persistently weak sentiment influencing discretionary spending and overall retail performance?

Data in this report include: US retail sales forecasts; model-predicted vs. actual retail growth; labor force, wage, and inflation metrics; consumer sentiment and disposable income trends; housing market data.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Other relevant research:

• Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
• All our coverage of tariffs
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.