What's Inside

We provide an update on our estimates for the UK retail outlook for holiday 2020, following UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s announcement on October 31 of a four-week lockdown in England.

This report covers the following key content:

• The imminent coronavirus lockdown to be imposed in England by the UK government will be effective from November 5 to December 2—and the nonessential stores forced to close under the new measures as well as the expected blow to UK retailers
• How first-lockdown trends inform our predictions for the upcoming second lockdown—with the potential key differentiator of underlying holiday demand for gifting purchases this time round
• Our predictions for a post-lockdown December bounce and implications of excess inventory for retailers into 2021
• The impacts of a second lockdown on retail bankruptcies and company voluntary arrangements—including our expectations for a renewed wave of UK store closures

We provide a UK Covid-19 timeline of key developments in the appendix.

This report provides an update to our previously published Holiday 2020: UK Retail Outlook from October, which is free to access.

Click here to read our Holiday 2020: US Retail Outlook report.