Executive Summary

• In this week’s letter, we take a look at the potential winners and losers from the Brexit fallout, the near-term impact on consumers, and accelerating trends in UK retail, including the mass adoption of discount formats, a structural shift to the online channel and the relative insulation of younger consumers from the Brexit impact.
• World events seem to have deterred consumer spending recently. In response, retailers are stepping up promotions in order to clear excess inventories. Consumers continue to avoid paying full price for goods, with full-price units sold down 9.5% and orders using a promotion up 38% during the week leading up to the Fourth of July.
• Sainsbury’s, the UK’s second-biggest grocery retailer, plans to double its number of click-and-collect grocery collection sites over the next 12 months. The company launched its click-and-collect service for groceries in March 2015. Most customers using its drive-through collection points do so for big, weekly shops.
• Mexico implemented an 8% tax on high-calorie snacks in 2014, and a recent report says that the tax has been successful in reducing junk-food purchases, but only marginally and only among lower-income and middle-class households. The report says there was an average 5.1% reduction in purchases of items subject to the tax.