Reasons to Read

Gain clear, forward-looking insight into the evolving outlook for US retail sales as growth remains strong but macroeconomic stress intensifies. This report explores how temporary supports such as tax refunds are propping up demand even as inflation accelerates, consumer sentiment weakens and energy-market shocks add new uncertainty. Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• How is US retail sales growth expected to trend through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027, based on proprietary, ML-driven monthly forecasts?
• Which factors are currently supporting retail sales growth—and why recent strength may be short-lived rather than structurally driven?
• In what ways are falling savings rates, weakening consumer confidence and elevated inflation reshaping spending behavior?
• How are geopolitical developments and energy-price volatility impacting inflation, consumer sentiment and discretionary retail spending?

Data in this report include: US retail sales forecasts; model-predicted vs. actual retail growth; labor force, wage, and inflation metrics; consumer sentiment and disposable income trends; housing market data.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Other relevant research:

• Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
• All our coverage of tariffs
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.