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US Retail and Consumer Outlook: An Overinflated Balloon Set To Pop?

What's Inside

US retail is inflated and could be deflated by a number of factors in 2023. Drawing on proprietary consumer survey findings and macroeconomic data, we assess the outlook for US retail, considering consumer behavior trends, the inflationary environment and supply-side retail pressures.

Data in this report include:

  • Proprietary survey data on US consumers’ changes to shopping behavior in response to inflation—for grocery and nongrocery
  • US retail sales, % change year over year and on a two-year basis
  • US consumer prices vs. average hourly wages
  • US personal savings rate

Companies mentioned in this report include: Dollar Tree, Inc., Dollar General, Walmart, Burlington Stores, Gap, TJX Stores, Nordstrom

Other relevant research:

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