Reasons to Read

We analyze US consumers’ expectations for the 2025 end-of-year holiday season and provide our early perspective on US retail’s potential performance during the holiday peak.

What are the most likely scenarios for holiday retail growth in 2025, and how might tariffs, inflation and macro uncertainty affect the outlook? Read this report to find out.

Data in this research report include proprietary US consumer survey findings:

• Consumer sentiment—expectations for the economy overall and for their own personal financial situation over the next 12 months
• Consumers’ spending expectations for the 2025 holiday season compared to last year
• How consumers expect their financial situation in the holiday season to compare to now—overall and by income level
• Holiday shopping preferences

Companies mentioned in this report include: Walmart, Costco, The TJX Companies, Shein, Temu

Other relevant research:

• Retail Under Pressure: How Will Tariffs Disrupt the Back-to-School and Holiday Seasons?
• US Retail and Consumer Outlook: June 2025
• All our coverage of the end-of-year US holiday season
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys.