What's Inside

Retailers are facing rising risks for the 2025 back-to-school (BTS) and holiday seasons due to new US tariffs, especially on Chinese imports. A current 90-day pause on tariffs, ending July 9, 2025, (for countries other than China) provides a short-term window for retailers to restock, but the overall impacts are set to weigh heavily on margins and product availability.

Discover what tariffs mean for retail this year and how retailers are adjusting their strategies ahead of the BTS and holiday seasons in response to recent and potential changes to tariffs.

Data in this research report include:

• Popular BTS and holiday season categories’ exposure to China, by percentage imported
• Survey data on the impact of China-specific tariffs on US toy companies

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Best Buy, FedEx, Hasbro, Lowe’s, Maersk, Mattel, Skechers, Target, Temu, Shein, Walmart, Williams-Sonoma

Other relevant research:

• US Retail in the Rest of 2025: Normalized Demand and Leaner Inventories Ahead of a High-Stakes Holiday Season
• Tariffs + Consumer Sentiment: A Timeline, 2025
• The Impacts of US Tariffs: Assessing Companies’ International Sourcing Exposure by Country
• Mapping the US’s Reciprocal Import Tariffs: Which Nations Are Affected?
• All our coverage of tariffs