Reasons to Read

Understand how resilient US retail sales are shaping amid rising inflation, weakening consumer sentiment, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Explore proprietary, machine-learning-driven retail sales projections as growth shows signs of moderation heading into late 2026 and early 2027.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• How is US retail sales growth expected to evolve through the rest of 2026 and into early 2027, based on our proprietary, machine-learning-driven forecasts—and where are the key inflection points?
• What is currently sustaining retail demand, and to what extent are factors such as tax refunds and lagged effects masking underlying weakness in consumer fundamentals?
• How are rising inflation and slowing income growth affecting real purchasing power, and what does this mean for the sustainability of consumer spending?
• In what ways are declining consumer sentiment and rising fuel costs reshaping shopping behavior, including discretionary spend, trip frequency and prioritization of essentials?
• How are geopolitical tensions and energy-market disruptions feeding into inflation dynamics and retail performance, and what risks do they pose to near-term growth?

Data in this report include: US retail sales forecasts; model-predicted vs. actual retail growth; labor force, wage, and inflation metrics; consumer sentiment and disposable income trends; housing market data.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Other relevant research:

• Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
• All our coverage of tariffs
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.