Executive Summary

  • Retail’s best performers continue to be concentrated at the high and low-ends, while the middle market remains pinched, as illustrated by the Weinswig Hourglass Model. We expect 2016 to remain another “hourglass year”, with the midmarket segment squeezed by discount chain expansion and a reduction in discretionary spending.
  • UPS delivered on-time at Christmas this year, while its main rival, FedEx, stumbled, leaving some gifts undelivered until after the holiday.
  • The UK saw strong online retail sales on Christmas Day, with a 21% year over year increase.  Footfall declined before Christmas 9%, but then rose 8.9% post-Christmas.
  • Brazil was hit hard – Brazilian retailers saw sales decline 15% from the prior year.  Walmart also said it was considering closing about 30 stores in Brazil.

Executive Summary

  • Ultralow-price fashion retailer Primark entered the US market on September 10, 2015, with plans announced for an initial eight stores in the country. We are optimistic about Primark’s chances of success in the US, given American shoppers’ reluctance to spend big on fashion.
  • Primark US could be generating around $1 billion in annual sales by 2019, we estimate, assuming the company opens an average of 7.5 American stores per year.
  • The threat from Primark is greatest for fashion-driven, lower-midmarket and budget apparel specialists. Primark will also be a potential threat to other lower-end channels, including mass merchandisers and lower-end department stores, but those retailers whose core shopper is slightly older and more conservative are likely to be safer.
  • After the US comes Italy, which Primark will enter in summer 2016. We are less confident of a strong performance there, given Italian consumers’ greater interest in fashion and their willingness to spend more substantially on clothing.
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Executive Summary

  • Many retailers offer loyalty programs. Some companies generate up to 60% of their revenues from loyalty program members. Others, such as warehouse clubs, operate a membership-only business model.
  • For traditional retailers, loyalty programs can provide valuable data that is used to personalize offers and ensure that the program perks are relevant to each customer.
  • Perceptions of loyalty programs vary among consumers in different regions, and can be affected by a country’s economic situation or cultural preferences.
  • Smartphone apps are set to become more prominent in loyalty programs with many members likely to use their smartphones in place of plastic membership cards in the years ahead.
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Executive Summary

  • The Star Wars franchise is a multibillion-dollar business and revenue generator, with nearly three times as much spent on Star Wars themed toys as on movie tickets.
  • Free shipping is the new normal — a whopping 88% of US online retail purchases qualified for free shipping on Cyber Monday, according to Demandware.
  • Amazon is seeking alternative delivery routes and easing its ties with UPS, citing rising package volumes and costs.
  • Google is reportedly in talks with Ford regarding the development of Google’s autonomous car. An announcement is expected the first week of January 2016.
  • China’s production of mobile phones is up year over year, to 1.6 billion. By the end of 2015, China will have produce about as many mobile phones as the total number sold across the globe in 2014.
  • Apple Pay will be available in Mainland China in early 2016, according to a statement released by Apple. Apple has partnered with China Union Pay, the main card company used by Chinese banks.

Executive Summary

  • Signs are pointing to a disappointing holiday season for apparel retailers due to unusually warm temperatures on both sides of the Atlantic, which has significantly reduced demand for winterwear, such as knitwear, jackets, coats and boots.
  •   Amazon.com increased its share of US online spending during the holiday season, taking 39.3% of e-commerce spending from November 1 through December 6, up from 37.9% during the same period last year.
  •   Hard discount grocery retailer, Lidl, has started renovating its German stores, with new design unveiled last week. The new formula will have more glass and aluminum as part of its structural design to give it a fresh look and a spacious feel.
  • Alibaba is buying Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post and other affiliated media assets, paying HK$2.06 billion ($266 million) for the century-old newspaper, outdoor advertising, digital assets and magazines.

Executive Summary

Agenda

  • Market Insights Influences During the Holiday Season
  • Consumer Insights Trends and Outlooks
  • Weather Insights Holiday 2015 and Comp to 2014
  • The Impact on Business Expected Climate-Driven Change in Consumption Patterns during Holiday 2015

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

  • The divested assets total more than 6 million square feet of retail space across four US states.
  • The proceeds of the transaction will fund the company’s US$11.4 billion development program, which includes the Westfield World Trade Center in New York planned to open in 2017.
  • The sale will also reduce the company’s gearing, or the debt-to-equity-capital ratio, by 3%, bringing it down to 29.2%.

Executive Summary

  • Strategy: Home Depot’s core strategy is evolving with the needs of its customers and business to focus on the customer experience and an improved product offering.
  • Growth: Home Depot aims to grow its sales to $101 billion and its operating margin to 14.5% by 2018; growth efforts will focus on the US, Canadian, and Mexican markets.
  • Productivity: Efforts to achieve productivity gains will focus on cross-functional work and improved “end-to-end” supply-chain integration.

Executive Summary

  • Black Friday is no longer a one-day affair and Thanksgiving holiday  spending is clearly moving online, with mobile playing a major role
  • Gasoline prices have fallen below $2.00 gallon in some parts of the US
  • Housing prices were flat in October, and housing starts rose
  • Third-quarter earnings continue to trickle in, with most retailers reporting YoY revenues declines

Executive Summary

  • Over the last two weeks, our team covered early store openings on Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Giving Tuesday, which represent more than US $11 billion of sales, up 17% from last year. Mobile accounted for more than half of shopping visits and nearly a third of sales.
  •  Watchmaker Swatch has signed a deal with Visa, in which Visa cardholders in Switzerland, Brazil and the US will be able to tap and pay for transactions with the new Swatch Bellamy, to launch sometime early in 2016.
  •  Amazon released a video showing a drone delivering a small package from a warehouse to a suburban neighborhood in about 30 minutes. The drones will be able to carry packages of up to five pounds.
  •  A new generation of bargain hunters is turning to discount and cash-and-carry chains, which experienced a sales compound annual growth rate of 18.7% from 2011–2014.

Executive Summary

  • Sizer is a third-party service that enables retailers to help online shoppers find the clothes that fit them best.
  • Sizer seeks to help apparel retailers provide a personalized shopping experience and drive Internet sales.
  • The company’s body-scanning technology operates on apps for the iPhone and iPad, and uses computer vision algorithms to capture body measurements with great accuracy.
  • Sizer’s matching system makes size and fit recommendations based on both garment specifications and the customer’s body measurements.
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Executive Summary

  • Ultralow-­‐price fashion retailer Primark entered the US market on September 10, 2015, with plans announced for an initial eight stores in the country. We are optimistic about Primark’s chances of success in the US, given American shoppers’ reluctance to spend big on fashion.
  • Primark US could be generatingaround $1 billion in annual sales by 2019, we estimate, assuming the company opens an average of 7.5 American stores per year.
  • The threat from Primark is greatest for fashion-­‐driven, lower-­‐midmarket and budget apparel specialists. Primark will also be a potential threat to other lower-­‐end channels, including mass merchandisers and lower-­‐end department stores, but those retailers whose core shopper is slightly older and more conservative are likely to be safer.
  • After the US comes Italy, which Primark will enter in summer 2016. We are less confident of a strong performance there, given Italian consumers’ greater interest in fashion and their willingness to spend more substantially on clothing.
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Executive Summary

  •  In the US and UK, we are anxiously looking forward to bargains on Black Friday, which falls on November 27, the day after the US Thanksgiving holiday. Our teams will visit stores and provide updates on this heavy shopping day
  • Walmart announced that it will begin Cyber Monday earlier this year by launching the first of its online deals on more than 2,000 items at 8:00 pm EST the Sunday night before, on November 29
  • From Friday, November 20, through the day after Thanksgiving, Amazon will offer Black Friday deals in five-minute increments, as well as more than 150 “lightning deals” exclusively on its mobile shopping app
  • Target plans to expand tests of its food-shopping experience to 25 stores in the Los Angeles area early next year. The tests include expanding the selection of local, seasonal and healthy food offerings and changing the design and decor in the retailer’s food aisles