Executive Summary

  • Groupe Casino reported a 3.8% decline in sales in 1Q18 to €8.90 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of €8.91 billion, and impacted by foreign-exchange effects of (7.7)%.
  • Stripping out exchange rate, fuel and calendar effects, organic sales growth for the group was 3.1% and comparable sales growth was 1.8%.
  • Comparable sales grew by 1.7% in France, including the Cdiscount e-commerce banner, and by 1.9% in Latin America.
Note: Groupe Casino completed the sale of its Thailand and Vietnam businesses in 1H16 and began the process of selling Via Varejo and its subsidiary, Cnova Brazil, in November 2016. The company has restated its financial statements from 1Q15 to 4Q16 to exclude the impact of these events.
A new accounting standard IFRS 15, which provides guidance on accounting for revenues from contracts with customers, came into effect on January 1, 2018. Groupe Casino has restated its 1Q17 sales based on this accounting standard,for a fair comparison with its latest results.

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Executive Summary

In this report, we share our top takeaways from our latest consumer survey, which looked at the online grocery market in the US.

  • Some 23.1% of all consumers surveyed said that they had bought groceries online in the past year, but most online grocery shoppers spend only a small share of their total grocery budgets online. We estimate that e-commerce will account for only about 2.4% of total food and drink retail sales this year, given that most shoppers still spend the bulk of their grocery dollars in stores.
  • Amazon is by far the most-shopped retailer among consumers who buy groceries online. However, a number of data points suggest that shoppers tend not to use Amazon for conventional, “full basket” grocery shops.
  • Our survey confirmed that collection is the majority fulfillment method in US online grocery: 51% of those surveyed mostly collect their online grocery orders, while 45% mostly get their orders delivered.
  • Walmart and Kroger hold strong positions in online grocery, despite Amazon’s lead in shopper numbers. The gap between online and in-store shopper penetration rates is much narrower for Walmart than for its major rivals. Kroger is in second place in terms of number of online shoppers and in third place in terms of number of in-store shoppers.
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Executive Summary

  • E-commerce is about a new business model to solve the pain points of existing retail channels.
  • Retailers are increasingly referencing AI and machine learning in their documents, indicating that AI investment by retailers may be gaining traction.
  • Smart robots could be the next wave of retail transformation, with Walmart pioneering the use of autonomous scanning robots to scan shelves for empty spots and to check price tags.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Same-Store Sales Report reviews comparable sales metrics reported by Costco, Buckle and Cato.

Highlights from our March US Same-Store Sales report:

  • Same-store sales for the group improved in March, and Costco, Cato and L Brands all reported positive comps for the month. Costco and L Brands beat comp estimates.
  • Mass merchant Costco saw comps increase by 8.6% year over year in March versus the 5.9% consensus estimate. Hardline categories, including appliances, seasonal goods, majors and hardware, were the standouts during the month.
  • L Brands reported comp growth of 4.0% overall in March and comp growth of 1% at Victoria’s Secret and 10% at Bath & Body Works.
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Executive Summary

  • L’Oréal reported 1Q18 comp growth of 6.8%, ahead of expectations and an improvement over the prior quarter’s growth.
  • The outperformance was in part due to more Chinese shoppers snapping up high-end beauty brands.
  • France continues to be a tough market for the company.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year-to-date 2018, the number of US store closure announcements stands at 3,335 and the number of store openings is 1,699.
  • Nine West has declared bankruptcy and vacated 71 of its 72 stores.
  • Adidas plans to close down stores in the coming years as it focuses on online retailing.
  • Bon-Ton has reportedly received a bid from two US mall owners to save the department store chain.
  • Year to date in the UK, there have been 221 store closure announcements and 491 store opening announcements.
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Executive Summary

April13, 2018

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses order-collection options such as lockers and towers that Amazon, Walmart and others are installing to ease product pickup.
  • Moody’s said in a report on Tuesday that retail sector defaults hit a record high during the first three months of 2018 as the rise of e-commerce and decline of malls continues to eat away at profits.
  • UK total retail sales grew by 2.3% in March against a decline of 0.2% in March last year and were positively distorted by the timing of Easter, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor.
  • China now has the world’s highest-valued artificial intelligence startup, following SenseTime’s announcement that it has secured a $600 million series C investment round, which values the company at over $4.5 billion.

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Executive Summary

  • Tesco announced a net profit of £1,208 million for FY18, representing a significant rebound from last year’s loss of £54.0 million. Revenues increased by 2.8% to £57,491 million.
  • Statutory operating margin expanded by 140 basis points to 3.2%. The company said that it is on track to reach its previously announced target of an operating margin of 3.5%–4.0% by FY20.
  • UK comparable sales were up by 2.2% during the year. Tesco said that there was consistent strength in fresh food, while there was a 0.4% drag from general merchandise.
  • Diluted EPS was 14.7 pence compared to a loss per share of 0.5 pence last year.

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Executive Summary

  • Carrefour grew first-quarter sales by just 0.4% on a comparable basis. Total sales fell by 2.4% at current exchange rates.
  • French comp growth slumped from 1.5% in the prior quarter to a decline of 0.1% in 1Q18.
  • Analysts have penciled in total group sales growth of just 0.3% for FY18.

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Executive Summary

  • ASOS reported 1H18 group revenue growth of 27.1%. At constant currency, revenues grew by 25.0%.
  • Gross margin increased by 90 basis points, SG&A as a percentage of sales grew by 130 basis points and operating margin expanded by 40 basis points.
  • Diluted EPS was 29.2 pence, representing an increase of 11.0% from 1H17.

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Executive Summary

AGENDA

  • About Coresight Research
  • AI Applications and Markets
  • The Digital Transformation in Retail
  • The New World of AI
  • Look to China, a New Leader in AI
  • Case Studies
  • Challenges in Adopting AI
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Executive Summary

Our top takeaways from our recent analysis of survey data on US grocery shoppers include the following:

  • Nonspecialist retailers account for three of the four most-shopped retailers for groceries: Walmart is in first place, Target is second and Costco is fourth. Kroger is the only supermarket retailer in the top four.
  • By age and affluence, the average shopper at Aldi is very similar to that at Walmart and Kroger, suggesting that Aldi’s aggressive expansion plans could present a particular threat to these two retailers.
  • Younger shoppers turn disproportionately to mass merchandisers Walmart and Target for groceries, while Costco and some supermarket chains such as Publix see a skew toward older shoppers.
  • Walmart and Target grocery shoppers register a number of differences: Target attracts significantly younger shoppers, Target sees more consistent shopper penetration across income groups and Amazon Prime members overindex at Target but underindex at Walmart.
  • Amazon Prime members overindex strongly at Whole Foods Market, and this is likely to be a reflection of higher income levels among both Prime members and Whole Foods shoppers.
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Executive Summary

  • April is expected to be a tough month for retail demand, according to business weather intelligence company Planalytics. Last April, the weather was warmer across much of the US, and Planalytics forecasts that weather-driven retail demand will be down 2% year over year this April. The weather in Europe has been volatile as well.
  • While there is substantial pent-up demand for spring merchandise, cold weather continues to delay purchases, since consumers generally buy according to need.
  • The weather outlook is likely to lead to heavier discounting. Though retailers are likely to sell their spring inventory eventually, higher discounts will lead to lower profitability.
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Executive Summary

  • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported adjusted organic revenue growth of 15% in 1Q18, a marked acceleration from 11% organic growth in 4Q17.
  • Top-tier luxury brands Louis Vuitton and Bulgari were among the drivers of growth, while Sephora gained market share.
  • For FY18, analysts expect the company to grow revenues by 5.6% and EBIT by 9.6%, yielding an EBIT margin of 20.2% versus 19.5% in FY17.

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Executive Summary

This brief report looks at the results of our recent survey which asked US consumers what they had bought on Amazon in the past year. We split out Amazon Prime members to chart how significant these shoppers are to Amazon’s overall shopper penetration.

  • Prime members drive Amazon’s shopper numbers. In all categories, Prime members are more than twice as likely as nonmembersto be buying on Amazon.
  • The gap between shopper numbers for Prime members and nonmembers is greatest in food and drink, a nontraditional category for Amazon. Prime members are nearly five times as likely to buy the category on Amazon than those without Prime are.
  • Other nontraditional Amazon categories such as health products, furniture and clothing overindex very strongly among Prime members, too.

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