Executive Summary

  • Boohoo.com reported a 96.8% jump in revenues to £579.8 million in FY18, slightly above the consensus estimate of £574.9 million, as recorded by S&P Capital IQ, and above the guidance provided previously.
  • Strong revenue growth at PrettyLittleThing (PLT) and a steady increase in revenues at Nasty Gal drove performance during the year.
  • Boohoo.com guided for revenue growth in the range of 35%–40%, adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 9%–10% and capex of £50–£60 million.

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Executive Summary

From Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods Market last year to Southeastern Grocers’ bankruptcy filing in March, we have seen a flurry of activity in the US grocery market in recent months. In this report, we discuss these corporate developments and note three trends driving mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in grocery. The sector is shifting:

  • From fragmented to more consolidated: Fragmentation is a driver of incremental consolidation and there is room for sustained consolidation in US grocery.
  • From offline to digitalized: The race to digitalize grocery offerings is fueling investments such as Target’s acquisition of Shipt, Albertsons’ purchase of Plated and Walmart’s acquisition of Parcel.
  • From pure play to multichannel: Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods reflects how much more difficult it is to make pure-play Internet retailing work in the grocery category than in nonfood categories.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly UK Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Highlights from our March UK Retail Sales Report:

  • UK retail saw a strengthening of year-over-year volume (or real term) growth in March. Easter Sunday fell on April 1 this year versus April 16 last year, and this pulled some Easter-related spending forward into March.
  • Total value retail sales growth of 5.2% in March was the highest seen since last August.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team attended World Retail Congress 2018 in Madrid this week. Here are our top takeaways from the third and final day of the conference:

  • The “third generation” of retail is characterized by marketplace companies, intermediary firms and social media influencers. Tech giants such as Alibaba are unifying retail and services.
  • Social media is the “new storefront,” according to Facebook. Social media can help retailers personalize offerings, track in-store shoppers and distribute immersive content.
  • When Luxottica changed its supply chain to fit new consumer demands, it saw an increase in logistics costs, but those were offset by fewer markdowns and fewer inventory write-offs.
  • Amazon is unlikely to enter the pharmacy market, according to Stefano Pessina, Executive Vice Chairman and CEO of Walgreens Boots Alliance.The Coresight Research team attended World Retail Congress 2018, which took place in Madrid April 17–19. Here, we feature our takeaways from the final day of the conference.
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Executive Summary

April20, 2018

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses what makes Chinese retail unique and what the future of retail could hold, according toexecutives from JD.com and Alibaba who spoke at the World Retail Congress in Madrid this week.
  • US retail sales rebounded in March after three straight monthly declines as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, suggesting that consumer spending was heading into the second quarter with some momentum.
  • Sinovation Ventures, a Chinese venture capital firm cofounded by the former head of Google China, Kai-Fu Lee, has raised a new, $500 million fund to invest in artificial intelligence (AI) startups in the region.
  • Alibaba is now running road tests of autonomous cars on a regular basis, and it has the capabilities for open road trials. The company is also looking to hire 50 more self-driving vehicle specialists for its AI research lab.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year-to-date 2018, the number of US store closure announcements stands at 3,335 and the number of store openings is 1,699.
  • With no other bidders in sight, the liquidators are awaiting final approval to begin winding down all Bon-Ton stores.
  • CVS has named Kevin Hourican as President of CVS Pharmacy.
  • In the UK, Carpetright will close at least 92 stores and is seeking rent reductions under a company voluntary arrangement (CVA) that must be approved by its creditors.
  • Toys“R”Us plans to close its remaining UK stores by the end of April.
  • Mothercare announced plans to close nearly a third of its 143 UK stores and is considering entering a CVA.
  • Year to date in the UK, there have been 313 store closure announcements and 491 store opening announcements.

 

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team attended the XRC Labs Cohort 5 Demo Day event in New York City on April 19 at the Parsons School of Design.

  • Pano Anthos, Founder and Managing Director of XRC Labs, kicked off the event by discussing how the store format is evolving and how retail is in a dramatic state of change.
  • The XRC Labs accelerator program’s fifth cohort included a mix of startups in the e-commerce, retail, design, interactive tech and 3D-printing sectors.
  • Nine startups that provide solutions designed to analyze data for better decision making and to improve the customer experience participated in the Demo Day event: Clark, Convrg, Fillogic, Frenzy, Hemster, KiraKira3D, LexSet, StoreDNA and Viveat.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year-to-date 2018, the number of US store closure announcements stands at 3,689 and the number of store openings is 1,759.
  • Old Navy plans to open 60 stores this year.
  • Bon-Ton has confirmed its liquidation plans to close all 260 stores.
  • Year to date in the UK, there have been 347 store closure announcements and 491 store opening announcements.
  • In the UK, East will cease trading on May 4, and will be closing all 34 of its stores.
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Executive Summary

  • Debenhams reported a decline of 1.6% in group transaction value to £1.7 billion and a fall of 51.9% in underlying PBT to £42.2 million. Both are broadly in line with consensus, as recorded by S&P Capital IQ.
  • The retailer attributed the poor performance to Christmas trading when it increased promotional activity and markdowns to keep pace with competitor discounting.
  • Debenhams lowered its guidance for a decline in FY18 gross margin to (100) bps from (25) bps. The company now guides for FY18 PBT to be at the lower end of the £50–£61 million range.

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team is attending World Retail Congress 2018 in Madrid this week. Here are our top takeaways from day two of the conference:

  •  Premium department store retailers are investing in regionally tailored, boutique-like stores.
  • Inditex implemented radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to digitally track its products and, so, improve business operations and the customer experience.
  • Investments in technology can be “peanuts” compared with the return they provide for retailers.

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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team is attending World Retail Congress 2018 in Madrid this week. Here are our top takeaways from day one of the conference:

  • The “retail apocalypse” story is “great clickbait,” but it is not taken seriously as an accurate depiction of US retail.
  • JD.com’s Richard Liu predicted that the retail industry will be operated at some point by artificial intelligence (AI) and robots, rather than by humans—but he did not predict when.
  • Alibaba Group sees Tmall as the “gateway to China” for Western retailers and brands and notes that the platform enables these companies to test products rapidly.

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Executive Summary

  • Primark’s parent, Associated British Foods (ABF), reported results for the first half ended March 3, 2018. This report focuses on results for Primark, the company’s retail division.
  • Primark’s 1H18 sales grew by 7% at constant currency and by 8% as reported, driven by increased selling space.
  • Primark’s comparable sales fell by 1.5%, as growth was hindered by an unseasonably warm October—a month when comps saw a “significant decline.”
  • The operating margin was 9.8%, down by 20 basis points from the same period last year.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the US Census Bureau.

Highlights from our March US Retail Sales Report:

  • Total retail sales increased by 0.6% month over month in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the US Census Bureau.
  • On a year-over-year basis in March, total retail sales increased by 4.5% and retail sales excluding autos increased by 4.7%.
  • Economists predict that healthy consumer confidence, steady job gains and the impact of tax cuts will help fuel solid spending growth in the months ahead.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team attended the AI Innovation Summit hosted by JD.com in Beijing, China, on April 15. JD.com has been at the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) research and application in China and its inaugural AI summit was attended by top scientists, industry analysts, retail executives and technology professionals.

  • At the summit, JD.com announced its AI strategy and its new, open AI platform called NeuHub. Bowen Zhou, the company’s VP of AI Platform and Research, explained that there are three key components of JD.com’s new AI ecosystem: the NeuHub open platform for technology collaboration, a team dedicated to AI-driven business-model innovation and an AI research institute focusing on partnerships with fundamental researchers from academia.
  • JD.com has partnered with Fung Retailing to power a better customer experience at retail stores. Scientists from JD.com presenting at the summit described how AI technology can help offline stores better understand store traffic patterns, customer demographics and product assortment. Store cameras powered by computer vision can capture information that enables companies to comprehensively analyze their customer base and optimize their assortment.
  • The newest frontier of conversational commerce is chatbots that are able to converse with human-like sentiment. JD.com’s Jimi chatbot is able to detect the sentiment behind customers’ inquiries and respond appropriately, like a well-trained human customer service representative would.

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Executive Summary

  • Groupe Casino reported a 3.8% decline in sales in 1Q18 to €8.90 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of €8.91 billion, and impacted by foreign-exchange effects of (7.7)%.
  • Stripping out exchange rate, fuel and calendar effects, organic sales growth for the group was 3.1% and comparable sales growth was 1.8%.
  • Comparable sales grew by 1.7% in France, including the Cdiscount e-commerce banner, and by 1.9% in Latin America.
Note: Groupe Casino completed the sale of its Thailand and Vietnam businesses in 1H16 and began the process of selling Via Varejo and its subsidiary, Cnova Brazil, in November 2016. The company has restated its financial statements from 1Q15 to 4Q16 to exclude the impact of these events.
A new accounting standard IFRS 15, which provides guidance on accounting for revenues from contracts with customers, came into effect on January 1, 2018. Groupe Casino has restated its 1Q17 sales based on this accounting standard,for a fair comparison with its latest results.

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