Executive Summary

On January 22, 2019, the Coresight Research team attended TechLIFEStyle conference, part of the StartmeupHK Festival 2019, a platform for startups, entrepreneurs, investors, industry leaders, students and academics to exchange ideas, make connections and chart a course for the future initiated launched by InvestHK, the HK government’s arm to promote Hong Kong as a location for international businesses. The theme of the event was “living smarter, living better,” looking at how lifestyle tech can be intertwined into everyday life.

  • Hong Kong offers a number of advantages for startups, with convenient access to mainland China and hosting to talent from around Asia – and around the world.
  • AI enables smart living in many different ways, in areas as diverse as retail and urban management.
  • Companies look to technology innovation to help them better serve customers.
  • Ant Financial aims to digitize finance for China, then the world.

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Executive Summary

  • Carrefour reported a solid quarter, with group comparable sales up 1.9%, ahead of consensus.
  • Growth was driven by Latin America, where comparable sales were up 12.9%. France was weak, with comp growth of 0.1%; management said that its hypermarkets took a hit from protests in France.
  • Management reported progress toward the company’s Carrefour 2022 targets on a number of fronts. 

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Executive Summary

Spring Festival, or the “Chinese New Year,” is a major spending period in China. In 2018, Chinese consumers spent ¥926 billion ($146 billion) shopping and dining out during the week-long holiday period, an increase of 10.2% compared to the 2017 holiday season, according to Ministry of Commerce statistics. 

These are our predictions for the Lunar New Year starting February 5, 2019 — the year of the pig:  

  • We expect total New Year Golden Week retail and food-service sales to reach approximately ¥1 trillion this year, up by around 8%. 
  • Spring Festival retail sales have risen steadily for more than a decade, but we see a slowing pace of growth in line with China’s slower pace of economic growth and mild economic uncertainty.
  • Companies are already ramping up promotions on e-commerce platforms.
  • Box office receipts will continue to grow.
  • Digital gifting continues to go big.
  • Traditions are shifting: more Chinese are opting to spend what was once one of the most important family holidays on the road, heading to domestic and international vacation spots.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  Where do U.S. adults shop most often for skin care and cosmetic products?

Executive Summary

  • VF Corp’s Active segment led fiscal 3Q19 sales growth with a 16% year-over-year increase, including a 25% increase at Vans. The North Face revenues grew 14%, driving an 11% gain in the Outdoor segment.
  • The Active segment drove operating margin expansion, with a 270-basis-pointsegment operating margin improvement, to 23.9%.
  • Adjusted EPS of $1.31 rose 29.7%, beating the $1.10 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

We review December retail sales and major retailers’ trading updates for the U.K. 

  • Total retail growth slowed sharply in December, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). December retail sales increased 2.1% year over year, versus 4.2% year-over-year growth in November. Across the November and December holiday period, total sales were up 3.0% year over year. 
  • In December, the grocery sector reported very weak growth and the department stores/mixed goods sector turned negative. However, clothing stores reported solid year-over-year growth of 2.7%. 
  • Across November and December, online retail sales accounted for 20.6% of all U.K. retail sales and 30% of all nonfood retail sales. 
  • Retailers that focused on value tended to outperform: Tesco and Boohoo Group beat consensus while Primark claimed to have outperformed the U.K. apparel market. 
  • Consumer uncertainty appeared to fuel an acceleration in the structural shift to discount and online retailers. As a result, we saw mid-market difficulties continue, notably at Marks & Spencer and Debenhams.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.

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Executive Summary

In this report, we look at digital payments in the U.S., what‘s done well and not so well — and what consumer preferences tell us about the future of digital payments in the U.S. 

  • Digital payments are growing quickly as consumers embrace noncash methods.
  • Digital commerce payments are expected to grow to over $1 trillion by 2022 – a CAGR of 14.8%, while proximity mobile payments are expected to grow 31.6% a year to $365.5 billion.
  • Old-fashioned credit and debit cards remain popular, with purchase volumes increasing more quickly than account growth.
  • Contactless cards have so far not been popular among U.S. consumers. 
  • The global mobile wallet market was worth $594.00 billion in 2016, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32% between 2017 and 2022, hitting over $3 trillion. 
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Executive Summary

Supported by data on store locations and findings from consumer surveys, we take a deep dive into Aldi and Lidl in the U.S. market.

  • Aldi is America’s eighth-biggest grocery retailer by estimated 2018 revenues, according to Euromonitor International. It has grown revenues by an estimated CAGR of 12.7% over the past five years.
  • If Aldi maintained its five-year revenue CAGR and its bigger rivals did likewise with their respective average growth rates, Aldi would climb to seventh place in grocery in 2019 and sixth in 2022.
  • Survey data shows that Aldi is the country’s second-most-shopped grocery retailer, by the number of consumers that have shopped there in the past 90 days. Almost one-quarter of U.S. consumers have shopped for groceries at Aldi in a 90-day period, rising to 40% in the Midwest.
  • After a shaky start in the U.S. market, Lidl has diversified into a range of store formats. Lidl is continuing to open stores at a steady pace, and its recent acquisition of the 27-strong Best Market Chain suggests a renewed impetus to grow its footprint in the U.S.
  • Given Aldi’s success, we see few reasons why Lidl should not capture meaningful share over the long term.
  • We see discount formats and Amazon as potential twin pressures on midmarket legacy grocery retailers in the coming years.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research attended Luxury Daily’s Luxury FirstLook 2019: Digital Acceleration conference in New York. The event was packed with senior executives from luxury brands, retailers, agencies, publishers and service providers. We were there to discuss digital acceleration, but most in the room agreed luxury companies are still in the early stages of adopting cutting-edge technology tools – not keeping up with their more digitally savvy clientele.

These are our key takeaways from the one-day event:

  • Casualization will continue to spread as the new normal, especially in the workplace.
  • Asian youth will drive luxury growth and be responsible for the majority of luxury consumption within the next three to five years.
  • Social and ethical issues will continue to grow in importance
  • The competition may be a nonluxury brand

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date in 2019, U.S. retailers have announced 1,725 store closures and 1,379 store openings.
  • Children’s apparel retailer Gymboree filed for Chapter 11 protection, plans to close 800 stores.
  • Chico’s will close 250 stores over a three-year period.
  • Shopko has filed for bankruptcy and will close 38 additional stores.
  • Indochino plans to open 20 stores in North America.
  • Macy’s will shutter eight stores.
  • J. Crew will shut at least five stores.
  • Kohl’s will close four stores and open four small format stores.
  • Year to date in 2019, U.K. retailers have announced 220 store closures and 253 store openings.
  • Marks & Spencer has given details on its next round of store closures.
  • Debenhams may close 40 additional stores, on top of the 50 potential closures announced in October.
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Executive Summary

On January 15, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Microsoft announced a seven-year strategic partnership to explore opportunities in digital health. Four key aspects of the partnership are:

  • WBA and Microsoft will work on developing a connected, consumer-centric healthcare delivery and management platform to improve access to healthcare.
  • The companies will also focus on providing more personalized healthcare services, leveraging Microsoft’s cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) technology platform Azure.
  • The companies will establish a single platform to better connect consumers, providers, pharmaceutical manufacturers and payors.
  • WBA will migrate the majority of its IT infrastructure to Microsoft Azure as Microsoft becomes WBA’s strategic cloud provider.

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Executive Summary

  • Primark grew revenues 4% year over year, at both constant currency and actual exchange rates in the 16 weeks ended January 5. The company missed the consensus estimate recorded by StreetAccount.
  • Primark saw a “modest decline” in comparable sales.
  • The company plans to open 900,000 square foot of retail space in fiscal 2019.

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Executive Summary

  • Casino Group reported a weak 4Q18 in its core French market, with French comparable sales excluding Cdiscount up 0.5%, versus 1.9% in 3Q18 and below the consensus estimate of 1.1%.
  • The weakness in France was evident across formats except the discounter Leader Price, which turned in consensus-beating comparable sales growth of 2.1%.
  • Management noted that Monoprix’s e-commerce sales grew double-digits, supported by sales via Amazon Prime Now and a “sharp acceleration” in Monoprix’s online fashion business.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” sums up the discussion of the future of physical stores that  we heard at NRF 2019: Retail’s Big Show this week.
  • Bellwether chains Macy’s Inc., Kohl’s Corp. and Target Corp. all tumbled in premarket trading on Jan. 10 after Macy’s cut its annual earnings forecast and Kohl’s reported disappointing seasonal sales growth.
  • Retail sales growth in the U.K. was flat year over year in December, while comparable sales declined 0.7 percent, despite retailers slashing prices. Retail traffic declined 2.6 percent during the month.
  • Amazon’s expansion in India into areas such as payments, food retail, content, digital voice assistance and customer support has resulted in nearly 1,300 job listings in the country, the highest number of Amazon openings in the Asia-Pacific region.

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Executive Summary

Retail has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade, and continues to evolve quickly. At the heart of the transformation are new digital trends that are driving fast-changing consumer preferences – and putting amazing new tools into retailers’ hands. In 2019, the industry will be shaped by emerging technologies that change the way consumers interact with brands, while retailers will collaborate more than ever with tech startups to future-proof their businesses.

We’ve identified the top 10 tech trends for 2019 that we believe will drive and enable retail to become stronger and better equipped to serve evolving consumer demand, to understand consumer behavior and create increasingly customized offerings.

  • Tech, brands and retailers will work together to automate apparel manufacturing
  • We’ll see an increase in blockchain in supply chain, e-commerce and CRM
  • Last-mile delivery will proliferate as consumer expectations rise
  • Reality technology will become more commonplace — and a disruptor
  • Computer vision will be used more to improve e-commerce
  • Retailers will use more data-driven models to increase personalization
  • Voice search will become more commonplace
  • Companies will adopt more IoT technology to gather better in-store data
  • E-sport startups will get more funding
  • Healthtech will transform the consumer landscape
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