Executive Summary

  • Net sales declined 4.7% to $4.4 billion, comps declined 1.6% in full-price and rose 4% in the off-price division.
  • Operating margin was flat at 7.6%, reflecting modest gross margin contraction offset by SG&A expense leverage.
  • For 2019, the company expects net sales to grow 1-2%, lower than the consensus estimate of 2.8%, and projected EPS to be $3.65- to $3.90, ranges in line with the consensus estimate of $3.67. 

Executive Summary

The Coresight Research is in Las Vegas this week, attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference from March 3-6. 

  • To kick off this year’s conference, Coresight Research Founder and CEO Deborah Weinswig emceed Shoptalk’s Startup Pitch competition. 
  • The competition featured 15 early-stage technology companies, which Weinswig classified into one of four categories: merchandising and marketing solutions; physical retail solutions; fulfillment and post-purchase operations; and, retail e-commerce experiences. 
  • Two winners were chosen, one by the panel of judges and one through audience voting. The winner of the judge’s choice was Chatter Research, a conversational commerce tool tailored to collect consumer post-purchase feedback. The audience’s chose smartphone-based self-checkout solution, Rapitag. 

Executive Summary

  • Foot Locker 4Q18 revenues were $2.27 billion, up 2.8% year over year, above the consensus estimate of $2.18 billion. The company reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $1.56, beating the consensus estimate of $1.40.
  • Comparable sales increased 9.7% for the quarter.
  • The company plans to close 165 stores in 2019. Management said it expects mid-single digit comparable sales gains and a double digit percentage per share earnings increase.

Executive Summary

  • Gap reported fiscal 4Q19 revenues of $4.6 billion, down 3% year over year and lower than the $4.7 billion consensus estimate. The company reported 4Q19 EPS of $0.72, up from $0.52 in 4Q18, but below the $0.68 consensus estimate. 
  • The company’s comparable sales were down 1% in 4Q19, compared to a 5% increase in 4Q18.
  • For FY20, Gap forecasts adjusted EPS of $2.40–2.55, excluding costs related to the Gap brand fleet restructuring. The company expects sales to be flat to slightly up, compared to the consensus estimate of up 0.5%.

Executive Summary

Amazon is reportedly planning to expand its presence in the US grocery market by building new stores it will operate under a banner other than Whole Foods Markets, which it acquired in 2017, and with a more typical product offering. Amazon is also considering acquiring several regional chains. At the same time, the company is expanding its fleet of Whole Foods Market and Amazon Go stores.

  • Amazon plans to open several dozen grocery stores in major US cities, with the first store in Los Angeles at the end of the year, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal. The company has already signed leases for openings next year, and talks are underway for stores in other cities.
  • Amazon is reportedly not planning to open these stores under its Whole Foods Market banner. The new stores are expected to offer a wider, more typical assortment, at lower price points, for example, including items that contain artificial ingredients and other additives.
  • The company is also reportedly considering purchasing retail grocery chains with about a dozen stores each.

Executive Summary

  • The customer experience across instore, online and mobile is the North Star guiding retailers’ and brands’ digital transformation. Corporate cultures are likely to need an overhaul as well, with digital evangelists driving a common language across the organization. 
  • The proliferation of data requires a criteria matrix to parse out what data is meaningful strategically for a retailer: Companies must put data in service to support strategy and improved agility. 
  • Retailers are actively rethinking their store fleets for omnichannel strategies, for consumer engagement and brand building. A localized approach may be more complex, but may yield better ROI and profitability metrics as it delivers a better consumer experience. 

On March 3-6, the retail world will come together in Las Vegas for one of the most important industry events of the year: Shoptalk. The Coresight Research team will be there – and our CEO Deborah Weinswig will emcee an important session in which 15 retail technology startups will compete to win one of two $25,000 prizes.

Join us in Track Room 4 starting at 1:45 PM, Sunday March 3, for the Startup Pitch session to see for yourself how these 15 companies are seeking to shake up retail. See here for a detailed agenda.

It’s an amazing and challenging time for retail, as consumer expectations shift rapidly, the lines between online and offline blur and startup companies deliver technology that hastens the pace of disruption. Ten years from now, retail will likely look totally different. Now is a time of great opportunity – but also serious challenges.

Coresight Research has identified the 10 Retail Trends we predict will be important in the coming year:

  1. Cities will see more spectacular retail from a new generation of flagship stores.
  2. “Fast Retail” will be marked by shorter leases, more shared spaces and more short-term stores.
  3. Western retailers will borrow from “New Retail” with data-driven online-to-offline ventures.
  4. Technology will continue to strip friction from brick-and-mortar retail.
  5. Artificial Intelligence will become retailers’ go-to technology.
  6. Startup partnerships will fuel new product development, digital improvements and operational efficiencies.
  7. Supply chains will become more responsive, and switch from lines to loops.
  8. More consumers will seek out environmentally and socially engaged brands.
  9. Shoppers will increasingly expect “Smart Retail” interactions.
  10. Consumers will look for more inclusive offerings, impacting the apparel and luxury markets.

We note these dovetail nicely with Shoptalk’s 75 ways retail will change in the next decade. Shoptalk buckets the 75 Ways Retail Will Change in the Next Decade into 10 Themes:

  1. The New Digital Retail Organization.
  2. The Transformation of the Retail Industry.
  3. The New Era of Marketing ROI and Attribution.
  4. Next Generation Ecommerce and Omnichannel Retail.
  5. Technologies Creating New Retail Experiences.
  6. Leveraging AI and Machine Learning.
  7. Advances in Store Layout and Design.
  8. Improving Operational Efficiency.
  9. Innovation Strategies for Brands and Retailers.
  10. Building Brands for Today’s Consumers.

We looked at the 75 ways through the lens of Coresight’s trends for 2019. We find about 40% align despite the difference in the projected time period (one year vs a decade), specifically:

  • Technology will continue to strip friction from brick-and-mortar retail,
  • Artificial Intelligence will become retailers’ go-to technology,
  • Shoppers will increasingly expect “Smart Retail” interactions.

Additionally, Shoptalk pointed out that augmented/virtual Reality, computer vision and voice command will bring significant impact to retail for the next decade, which echoes our Ten Tech Startup Trends.

These are a few of the hot topics we’ll be following at Shoptalk – which we believe will also be defining themes for retail in the coming years:

  1. New Retail will take greater hold we see more companies place increasing importance on integrating online and offline offerings for a more seamless customer experience: New Retail Briefing #1, New Retail Briefing #2, New Retail Briefing #3, New Retail Briefing #4.
  2. Artificial intelligence will become more deeply integrated in a variety of areas from inventory management to customer recommendations.
  3. Supply chain management will become a key differentiator as companies seek to optimize inventory and maximize ability to offer products that closely map to fast-changing consumer preferences: 3D Disrupts the Fashion Supply Chain.
  4. The evolution of branding will incorporate data-driven marketing that supports a one-to-one brand relationship with consumers.
  5. New payment methods will gain traction as new technology enables features such as cashless (and unstaffed) shops.

The huge scope of topics to be addressed are proof there is no one path to retail/consumer nirvana: The path forward will be iterative and different for different every company. Solutions will evolve as they progress – and as new, disruptive technologies emerge.

We’ve been profiling the 15 companies that will compete for the two $25,000 prizes – some of which could well end up being the disruptors of tomorrow!

The chart below categorizes the fifteen startups into four solutions: Merchandising and Marketing Solution, Physical Retail Shopping Experience, Retail Ecommerce Experience and Fulfillment and Post-Purchase Operations.

Coresight Research is also participating in The New Retail Organization: Omnichannel, which will focus on innovative digital experiences. Retailers and brands are learning to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. Emerging digital products, platforms and technologies regularly create new opportunities to serve existing customers and attract new ones, both in-store and online.

As part of this session, our CEO Deborah Weinswig will speak with Michael Martin, Vice President of Digital Products with Nike. Join us on Tuesday March 5 at 2:50 PM in Track Room 2 for this exciting event. See a more detailed agenda here.

We look forward to seeing everyone in Las Vegas for Shoptalk next week!

 

 

Executive Summary

This report forms part of our Innovator Intelligence series, which focuses on emerging companies that are disrupting traditional retail and fueling innovation across the retail value chain.

Market Beyond provides retailers and brands insights about product-level performance and customer shopping behavior across all major e-commerce platforms. It uses artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning software, to sort and analyze billions of unique shopper journeys. The company has access to millions of online shoppers with a variety of age and geographical demographics. Market Beyond can help retailers and brands understand their shoppers’ paths to purchase, provide e-tail insights and reveal a company’s true online market share.

  • E-commerce continues to take greater portions of total retail sales. In the US, online retail made up about 13.7% of total retail in 2018, according to Euromonitor International, and is expected to make up 22.2% of total retail sales in the US by 2023.
  • Many retailers and brands outsource e-commerce operations entirely. While these retailers and brands often see double-digit gains in online sales, few have real visibility into their competitive performance. While they might have solid sales growth, the companies may still be ceding online market share to competitors — include e-commerce giants such as Amazon, and any of the numerous smaller players that have can take advantage of e-commerce’s low barriers to entry. Market Beyond gives insights to companies down to the product level, allowing retailers and brands to optimize their competitive strategies.
  • AI has been on the rise in retail, even if the retail industry has been slow to adopt the technology. The fragmented nature of e-commerce platforms and marketing campaigns, and the vast amount of recorded data about consumers online, makes it a ripe field for AI innovation. Market Beyond uses AI and machine learning software to sort through billions of shopper journeys to provide insights about companies’ products online.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. This report focuses on e-commerce.

  • In the U.S. and China, the e-commerce market continues to consolidate as leading platforms such as Amazon and Tmall build market share.
  • E-commerce players continue to disrupt traditional retail. In the U.S., online operators are expanding offline, while in China, e-commerce companies are more focused on leveraging technology to enhance the retail experience.
  • In both the U.S. and China, uncertainties due to trade tensions and a slowing domestic economy may heavily impact the e-commerce sector.
  • Despite the fluid macroeconomic environment, we see opportunities in e-commerce, especially in terms of budget offerings and lower-income consumers, who number more than 1 billion in China.
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Executive Summary

Our insights from Zalando’s 2019 Capital Markets Day include:  

  • Zalando wants to attract more brands to its Partner Program and to sell fulfillment and marketing services to more of them — creating a stronger multibrand proposition. 
  • The company aims to triple gross merchandise volume (GMV) between 2018 and 2023/24. 
  • Zalando will “de-average” its approach to customer relationships and build stronger relationships with higher-spending shoppers.

Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses the adaptive clothing and footwear market, which represents a $47.3 billion opportunity in the US.
  • Canada-based retailer Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) is set to close all 37 of its Home Outfitters stores in Canada this year. The retailer is also considering closing up to 20 of its 133 Saks OFF 5TH stores in the US, following a strategic review of the business.
  • The UK’s Marks & Spencer (M&S) and Ocado Group announced the creation of a 50/50 joint venture that will see M&S acquire a 50% share of Ocado’s UK retail business for up to £750 million ($997.5 million).
  • Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com is collaborating with Japan’s Rakuten to develop unstaffed delivery options in Japan. Under the partnership, Rakuten will use JD’s drones and autonomous robots for delivery.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date in 2019, US retailers have announced 4,309 store closures and 1,586 store openings.
  • Gap, L Brands and JCPenney announced further closures as we went to press.
  • Southeastern Grocers will close 22 stores.
  • E.L.F. Beauty will shut down all its 22 stores over an unspecified period.
  • Hudson’s Bay Company plans to shut 20 Saks Off 5th stores over an unspecified period.
  • Year to date in 2019, UK retailers have announced 285 store closures and 327 store openings.
  • HMV has reopened nine stores.
  • Brooks Brothers has opened its third UK store
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Executive Summary

  • Carrefour reported FY18 total sales of €77.9 billion, down 3.1% year over year, but up 3.3% at constant exchange rates, and above the consensus estimate of €76.6 billion by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported adjusted net income of €802 million, down 11.2% year over year, but ahead of the StreetAccount consensus of €747.8 million.
  • Carrefour raised its targets for cost reduction from €2.0 billion to €2.8 billion on an annual basis by 2020.

Executive Summary

  • JCPenney 4Q18 revenues were $3.67 billion, down 9.5% year over year, below the consensus estimate of $3.72 billion. The company reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of $0.18, down 64.7% from last year and above the consensus estimate of $0.11. 
  • On a shifted basis, comparing sales for the weeks ending Feb 2, 2019, with the weeks ending Feb 3, 2018, comparable sales decreased 4%. On an unshifted basis, comparable sales decreased 6.0%, and for the full year, comparable sales decreased 3.1%. 
  • The company plans to close 18 full-line stores and nine ancillary home and furniture stores in 2019. The company expects to be cash flow positive for fiscal year 2019.