Executive Summary

  • BJ’s Wholesale Club reported total 4Q18 revenues of $3.42 billion, down 3.9% and beating the $3.36 billion consensus estimate. Net sales increased 2.9% adjusted for the extra week in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.44, up 22.7% and beating the $0.36 consensus estimate.
  • Comps excluding gasoline increased 2.9% during the quarter and 2.2% for the year.
  • BJ’s guided for 2019 revenues of $12.9-13.2 billion, below the $14.37 billion consensus estimate, a 1.5-2.5% increase in comps and EPS of $1.42-1.47, in line with consensus.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our Monthly Consumer Update rounds up key metrics that reflect consumer demand in the US, the UK and China.  We focus on direct, leading indicators of the health of the consumer economy: wage growth, price changes and retail sales growth.

Highlights from our January Consumer Update:

  • US consumers benefitted from strengthening wage growth and lower inflation.
  • UK retail sales growth proved solid.
  • Chinese consumers enjoyed a double boost from a softening of inflation in food prices and deflation in automotive fuel prices.
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Executive Summary

Our Insights from China reports provide a weekly review of what’s happening in China – and what international brands and retailers need to know to succeed. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape – as they affect international companies selling to Chinese consumers or looking to enter the market.

This week, we look at how companies can leverage the power of the popular Chinese short video app Douyin, also known as TikTok, in reaching and engaging consumers.

Douyin: Leading Short Video App with a Large Base of Young Users

Douyin, known as TikTok overseas, is a short video app which allows users to share self-created short videos, generally limited to 15 seconds. The Beijing-based Internet company ByteDance launched the app in 2016 and its international version TikTok a year later. The app gained traction rapidly:

  • China-based data services company Miaozhen Systems estimates Douyin’s daily active users numbered over 100 million as of June 2018, topping all other Chinese short video apps.
  • TikTok surpassed Facebook, Instagram and YouTube to become the most downloaded non-game app in iOS App Store in the first quarter of 2018, according to app analytics firm Sensor Tower.

Official data from Douyin also reveal a large user base – mostly born after 1990:

  • Over 40% of users were aged 24–30 years as of June 2018.
  • The app had over 250 million daily active users and 500 million monthly active users as of December 2018.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research is in Las Vegas this week, attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference, March 3-6. These are just a few of the innovative technologies we saw at the show:

  • Last-mile delivery solutions connect drivers with retailers in more efficient ways, enabling better logistical operations and faster delivery.
  • Beyond search and discovery, computer vision technology can help retailers make better use of their physical store locations in ways that include customer tracking and inventory management.
  • New solutions to manage returns could ease a long-time pain point for online.

Executive Summary

  • Omnichannel execution is a process worth perfecting, but there’s still a lot of work to be done.
  • The evolution of the physical store into an omnichannel strategy requires new KPIs and cultural change.
  • The age-old retail adage “know your customer” comes up at every session we attended. The digital transformation of retail is enabling technology, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to support this truism to better meet consumer needs, anticipate desires and develop emotional bonds.

Executive Summary

  • Target reported flat 4Q18 total revenues of $22.98 billion, with sales below consensus, however, the year-ago quarter included one extra week ($1.2 billion) of sales. Adjusted EPS was $1.53, beating consensus by a penny. Comps grew 5.3%, beating consensus. Digital sales grew 31%.
  • For 2019, Target expects a low- to mid-single-digit increase in comps, a mid-single-digit increase in operating income and EPS of $5.75-6.05 (up 7-12%), above consensus of $5.61.
  • Target held an upbeat, well-attended investor meeting in New York City, in which management illustrated the successes of investments it began in 2016 in addition to its “durable financial model,” which calls for sales growth in the low- to mid-single digits, leading to earnings per share growth in the high-single digits.

Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. In this report, we review the global consumer packaged goods (CPG) market.

  • Emerging markets, especially China, are key growth avenues for CPG companies. Oxford Economics predicts that China’s urban economic power will surpass North America’s by 2030.
  • As shoppers become increasingly focused on digital channels and more mindful about health and wellness, CPG companies need to be agile in order to respond to their needs.
  • Multinational companies, private labels and emerging local players are all fighting for share of the CPG market.
  • Economic and political uncertainties abound as we begin 2019, but secular growth will continue to underpin demand for CPG products.
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Executive Summary

The Coresight Research is in Las Vegas this week, attending and participating in the Shoptalk 2019 conference, March 3-6. These are just a few of the innovative technologies we saw at the show:

  • Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) platforms let retailers offer a 3D online shopping experience, making the online experience more like in-store shopping than ever before.
  • Computer vision technology helps customers search and discover products more easily online, while helping retailers more directly target shoppers based on visual media.
  • Localization strategies direct shoppers to stores, making returns easier, connecting the companies to local customers and increasing convenience for shoppers.

Executive Summary

In this, our third report in our series A Guide to Entering China for Foreign Brands and Retailers, we focus on how foreign brands can use Singles’ Day as a springboard to enter China, leveraging our proprietary data on brands’ sales performance on Singles’ Day 2018 on Tmall. Our findings focus on four categories: women’s wear, women’s skincare, snacks and diapers. 

  • Within women’s wear, top brands such as Uniqlo offered free delivery and used social media to build demand. 
  • For women’s skincare, top brands such as Pechoin leveraged online campaigns and customer reviews. 
  • In the snacks category, the Three Squirrels brand introduced 11 new products through its “Squirrel Made 2018” event and used live streaming to showcase selected products.
  • In the diapers category, top brands such as Pampers collaborated with Tmall to give out free samples.
  • Our data show that Singles’ Day is about more than just price promotions: Social media campaigns, product launches and special events helped build consumer excitement and drive sales on Singles’ Day.

Click here to view more reports about China Market Entry.

 

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Executive Summary

  • Alibaba Group’s business-to-business (B2B) trading platform Alibaba.com announced a strategic collaboration with the US business services and supplies company Office Depot.
  • The collaboration will provide US entrepreneurs and business owners with access to a single online destination to access one of the world’s largest catalogs of goods and services across all product categories.
  • The move helps Alibaba to enter the US market, enables Office Depot to better serve its clients, and empowers US small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to grow by tapping into the global B2B e-commerce market, valued at $23.9 trillion.

Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of February 22, the IRS had received 49.9 million tax returns, down 3.5% year over year.
  • A total of 38.6 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 4.8% year over year), totaling $121.2 billion (down 3.6% year over year) and averaging $3,143 (up $40 or 1.3% year over year).
  • The continuing slow rate of filing is likely due to confusion from tax law changes, combined with reduced availability of IRS agents due to the government shutdown. Given a solid US economy, higher wages and employment rates, total refunds are likely to be higher in 2019, now that the disruption from the government shutdown has been resolved.
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Executive Summary

  • Personalization is growing in importance to create authentic consumer to brand relationships.
  • Brands and retailers going global are localizing more than ever in other markets.
  • Cutting-edge AI technology will begin to elicit and gauge human emotion – and help brands deepen the customer connection.

QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Why Do Amazon Apparel Shoppers Buy Clothing and Footwear on Amazon?

A Coresight Research proprietary survey shows that ease of browsing is the top reason consumers buy clothing and footwear on Amazon.

Executive Summary

Our survey of US apparel shoppers has uncovered a wealth of insights on Amazon Fashion. Here are our top six findings: 

  • Measured by number of shoppers, Amazon Fashion is the most-shopped apparel retailer in the US, up from second place in 2018. 
  • Apparel shopping rates show signs of peaking among Prime members. Around three-quarters of Prime members bought apparel on Amazon in the past year. However, we recorded a much greater uplift from “have bought” to “expect to buy” among those without Prime membership than among Prime members.
  • Amazon’s private-label collections as a group comprise the fourth-most-bought clothing or footwear “brand” on Amazon and one in six Amazon apparel shoppers surveyed said that they have bought Amazon private-label apparel in the past 12 months.
  • Amazon has established its #1 position by penetrating the heart of the mid-market. Reflecting this, Walmart is now the top retailer that Amazon Fashion shoppers have switched some or all of their apparel spending from, followed closely by Target. 
  • Amazon Fashion shoppers are satisfied with the site’s online experience and cited the ease of browsing and searching as the top reason to buy apparel on the site. Only 13% of shoppers think that the site could be made easier to browse.
  • Amazon apparel shoppers show only average rates of concern with sustainability. Overall, apparel shoppers try to buy from brands with a good environmental record but are less likely to want to pay for sustainable practices. 
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Executive Summary

  • JD.com reported 4Q18 revenue of ¥134.8 billion ($19.6 billion), up 22.4% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of ¥132.5 billion. 
  • Operating loss in the quarter narrowed to ¥938.9 million ($136.6 million).
  • The company’s revenue guidance for 1Q19 was ¥118–122 billion, equivalent to 18–22% year-over-year growth.
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