Executive Summary

  • Ascena Retail Group reported fiscal 3Q19 revenues of $1.27 billion, below the consensus estimate of $1.43 billion, and down 0.1% year over year. The company reported adjusted 3Q19 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.26, higher than the consensus estimate of $(0.36) but lower than the year-ago period.
  • Ascena’s third quarter comparable sales were flat, above the consensus estimate of (2.8)%.
  • Due to the the closure of the company’s Dressbarn business, for 4Q19, the company provided guidance only for the continuing operations of its premium fashion brands, plus fashion brands and kids segments; it projects net sales of $1.175 billion to $1.215 billion. Management expects comparable sales of (5)% to (3)%.

Executive Summary

In our weekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape — as they affect business operations and the future outlook.

This week, we look at German discount supermarket chain Aldi opening its first stores in China. The Coresight Research team visited the Jing’an store shortly after it opened, and we feature images from our visit in this report.

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Executive Summary

On June 10, 2019 Salesforce and Tableau announced an agreement under which Salesforce would acquire Tableau for an enterprise value of $15.7 billion in stock.

  • The rationale for the acquisition is to accelerate customers’ digital transformations, enabling them to unlock data across the company, revealing deeper insights to make smarter decisions, drive intelligent customer experiences and accelerate innovation, according to the company. Worldwide spending on technologies and services to enable digital transformation is estimated at $1.2 trillion this year, reaching $1.8 trillion in 2022, according to IDC.
  • Tableau offers a self-service analytics platform with a community of more than one million members. The company expects to report revenues of $1.4 billion this year and has 4,200 employees.
  • The acquisition is expected to close during Salesforce’ 3Q ending October 31, 2019. The transaction is expected to add $350-400 million to FY 2020 revenue and reduce adjusted EPS by $0.37-0.39.
  • Salesforce is enhancing its portfolio with the proposed addition of a leading business analytics and data visualization platform to its portfolio. The acquisition will add a community of customers in a broad spectrum of industries and enhance its analytics offerings, in addition to preventing the company from ending up in a competitor’s hands.

Executive Summary

Singles’ Day, held annually on November 11, began as a festival of young Chinese people celebrating their pride in being single. Alibaba started promoting the day as a shopping day (now officially called the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival) back in 2009. Only 27 brands participated then, generating total GMV of $7.8 million. Last year, total GMV on Alibaba’s various platforms hit $30.8 billion, up 27% from the prior year and a whopping 252% CAGR over the past nine years.

In our monthly reports counting down to Singles’ Day, we help retailers prepare for the event. In this report, we offer a five-step guide for preparing for Single’s Day:

  • Set sales targets and plan for traffic.
  • Plan your product mix and prepare inventory and warehousing.
  • Formulate plans to drive traffic and conversion.
  • Get the backend ready.
  • Monitor progress throughout to ensure the best Singles’ Day results.

Click here to read more Coresight coverage of Singles’ Day for the upcoming 2019 shopping event and prior years.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly US Same-Store Sales Report reviews comparable sales metrics reported by Costco, Buckle and Cato.

Highlights from our May US Same-Store Sales report:

  • In May, Costco’s same-store sales growth was below the consensus estimate, although its e-commerce segment continued to post strong growth.
  • Buckle posted a decrease in same-store sales, impacted by poor performance in its women’s segment.
  • Cato posted positive same-store sales growth. The company said that May’s sales were in line with expectations.
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Executive Summary

Chinese consumers have higher expectations than ever before: They are more digital than their Western counterparts, have rising incomes and are experiencing an explosion in retail and product options. Here are 10 trends that will shape Chinese consumer demand:

  • A young and affluent population will fuel future consumption.
  • Lower-tier cities will drive demand in future, and many shoppers in these areas buy in groups.
  • The increasing obese population will grow the addressable plus-size apparel market.
  • More shoppers will embrace “buy now, pay later.”
  • The “lazy economy” is gaining traction.
  • Men will be the new beauty consumer.
  • Consumers are becoming more health conscious and going premium.
  • Chinese consumers are traveling more for the experience than for shopping.
  • Chinese shoppers are spending more on luxury domestically.
  • Chinese consumers are influenced by online key opinion leaders (KOLs).
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK: What Drives Beauty Product Purchase Decisions Among US Millennials?

Millennials value trust in a brand more than anything else when buying a beauty product, followed by product price. The leading reasons are broadly in line across different age groups.

Executive Summary

  • Ollie’s reported 1Q19 revenues of $324.9 million, up 17.8% and beating the $319.2 million consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.46, up 12.5% and beating the consensus estimate by 2 cents.
  • Comparable sales increased 0.8%, slowing from 1.9% in the year-ago quarter and missing the 1.2% consensus estimate.
  • Ollie’s guided for 2019 revenues of $1.44-1.45 billion, up 16-17% and in line with the $1.45 billion consensus, comps to increase 1-2%, and adjusted EPS of $2.13-2.17, up 16-19% and in line with the $2.15 consensus estimate.

Executive Summary

With this series, 30 Global Retail Cities, we profile the world’s major shopping cities – from fashion capitals such as Milan to shopping hubs such as Honolulu and Bermuda. We curated the top retail stores in each city, along with must-see shopping districts, major retail events and innovative store formats.

Click here to view the full 30 Global Retail Cities series.

These are our highlights from Los Angeles:

  • Nike By Melrose is a 4,000-square-foot, digital-meets-physical store, which the company refers to as a “Nike Live” store.
  • Violet Grey stocks products used by makeup artists, while the company’s e-commerce site is part luxury editorial and part online store.
  • The Warby Parker store has a green room in which customers can shoot 15-second videos using a variety of different backgrounds, such as a big pepperoni pizza, a palm tree-lined boulevard, an aquarium and more.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research is featuring gift inspiration from five innovative companies for Father’s Day, spanning personalization, subscription services, sustainability and grooming.

  • Father’s Day spending is expected to reach an all-time high of $16 billion in 2019, up from $15.3 billion last year, according to survey data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insight & Analytics.
  • According to the survey respondents, the most popular gifts this year will include special outings (46.8%), clothing (46%), gift cards (43%), books (21.5%) and personal care items (20.5%).
  • Coresight Research has selected five inspiring gift ideas for today’s modern fathers from innovative brands including GiftNow and Same But Different that offer personalized gifts, MYRO and Birchbox Grooming that feature subscription boxes and OneBlade, which offers a luxury razor.
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Executive Summary

June 7, 2019

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the massive changes technology has brought to retail over the years – and what’s coming next.
  • Costco leads competitors in combating in-store theft, reporting that its shrinkage rate was just 0.11-0.12% of sales, compared to the 1.33% industry average in 2017.
  • Amazon is bringing nearly 100 small online merchants to the high street with a series of pop-up shops across the UK in a year-long pilot program. Stores are to open in Manchester, Wales, Scotland, the Midlands, Yorkshire and the Southeast.
  • Australian fashion retailer Cotton On has started selling in India through online shopping site Myntra, and plans to open a physical store in either Delhi or Mumbai by the end of 2020.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks news about store closures, openings and bankruptcies. Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 7,222 store closures and 2,796 store openings. This compares to 5,864 closures and 3,239 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 325 store closures and 398 store openings.
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Executive Summary

  • Five Below reported 1Q19 revenues of $364.8 million, up 23.1% year over year and beating the $364.2 million consensus estimate.
  • EPS was $0.46, up 17.1% year over year and beating the consensus estimate by 12 cents.
  • Comps increased 3.1%, missing the 3.7% consensus and down from 3.2% in the year-ago quarter.
  • The company guided for 2019 revenues of $1.86-1.88 billion, up 20-21% but below the $1.89 billion consensus and for EPS of $3.11-3.18, up 17-19% and above the $3.09 consensus.

Executive Summary

The US-China trade dispute has affected both countries: The volume of China’s exports to the US fell for five months in a row while US exports to China have slid eight months in a row. Here are some of the latest skirmishes:

  • On June 1, China increased tariffs on 5,000 categories of US goods worth of $60 billion, in response to the US move to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods
  • China released a white paper outlining its position on June 2, a clear effort to show its unbending position.
  • China remains a dominant supplier of footwear imported into the US, but with the ongoing exchanges of tit for tat tariff increases, we expect sourcing to shift to alternative sources such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia and Italy.
  • Footwear brands are feeling the heat, as China offers an established base with infrastructure and manufacturing know-how difficult to replicate in other locations.
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Executive Summary

Each of our Sector Overview reports provides an essential briefing on a sector or market. Findings in US home and home improvement include:

  • Interest rates are likely to remain stable for the rest of the year.
  • US consumer confidence appears to have peaked and spending preferences are still directed at home improvement, but the growth rate of spending on home improvement is expected to slow.
  • Data on housing permits, starts and completions show mixed signals.
  • Growth in US existing home sales continues to experience a slowdown and home prices were up 4.2% in January 2019, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
  • Lowe’s revamped management is targeting operational improvements at the company.
  • RH is positioning itself as much more than just a hardware store, calling its stores “galleries” and seeing itself building a luxury platform and brand with a “discerning level of taste.”
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