Executive Summary

  • JCPenney reported fiscal 2Q19 net sales of $2.51 billion, lower than the consensus estimate of $2.64 billion, and down 9.2% year over year. The company reported adjusted 2Q19 EPS of $(0.18), better than the year-ago period of $(0.38) and higher than the consensus estimate of $(0.31).
  • Comparable sales decreased 9.0% for the quarter compared to the consensus estimate of down 5.1%.
  • The company reaffirmed its guidance to be cash flow positive for fiscal year 2019. The company expects comparable sales to in a range of (7.0)%-(8.0)%.

Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly UK Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Highlights from our July UK Retail Sales Report:

  • July was a solid month for UK retail overall, according to the ONS: Sales grew 3.7% versus 4.0% in June and slightly below the 4.1% average for the prior 12 months. However, grocery sector growth remained tepid and sales at large clothing retailers were down a little year over year.
  • The Internet pure play and mail-order sector saw a jump in growth, possibly helped by Amazon’s Prime Day, which was held in mid-July.
  • Shop-price inflation stood at 0.8% in July, up from 0.5% in June.
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Executive Summary

  • Tapestry reported adjusted 4Q19 EPS of $0.61, up 1.7% from the prior year period, and meeting the $0.61 consensus estimate. Total revenues grew 2% (4% currency neutral) to $1.51 billion, shy of the $1.53 billion consensus estimate.
  • Adjusted gross margin contracted 70 bps to 67.2%, driven by Kate Spade.
  • The company’s guidance for FY20 is for a low-single-digit increase in revenues, and EPS approximately equal to FY19’s adjusted EPS of $2.57. The company will not be looking to pursue strategic acquisitions as its focus will be on organic growth in FY20.

Executive Summary

  • Walmart reported fiscal 2Q20 revenues of $130.38 billion, up 1.8% year over year and beating the $130.10 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.27, down 1.6% year over year and beating the $1.22 consensus estimate.
  • US comps increased 2.8%. US e-commerce sales grew 37%, driven by the strength in online grocery.
  • For FY20, management lowered guidance for consolidated net sales growth, to around 3% at constant currency, but increased EPS guidance.

Executive Summary

  • Nvidia reported fiscal 2Q20 revenues of $2.58 billion, down 17.4% year over year and slightly ahead of the $2.55 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.24, down 36.2% year over year and beating the $1.15 consensus estimate.
  • Automotive was the fastest-growing segment, with revenues up 30% year over year, and revenues in gaming, Nvidia’s largest segment, beat consensus estimates.
  • For fiscal 3Q20, the company guided for revenues of $2.8-3.0 billion, down 7-11% year over year, plus adjusted EPS of $1.48-1.64, in line with the $1.52 consensus estimate.

Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at the abundance of technology pouring into retail stores.
  • In the US, Allbirds is expanding into apparel — starting with socks.
  • In Europe, Zara is launching a new online customization feature, which allows shoppers to personalize any items in a newly released 28-piece collection.
  • In Asia, Alibaba Group will offer a bigger range of benefits to the members of its paid loyalty program, 88VIP.
  • In Latin America, Gap has opened its first Argentinian store.

Executive Summary

  • com reported 2Q19 revenue of ¥150.3 billion ($21.9 billion), up 22.9% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of ¥147.4 billion.
  • Operating income in the quarter increased to ¥2.3 billion ($330.2 million) from a loss of ¥1.0 billion in 2Q18.
  • Management guided for 3Q19 revenue of ¥126–130 billion, equivalent to 20–24% year-over-year growth.

Executive Summary

In this report, we review year-to-date announced store closures and openings in the US, by sector. Our data are as of July 31, 2019.

  • Major retailers have announced 7,567 store closures so far this year. In 2018 overall, major retailers closed 5,524 stores.
  • By sector, apparel specialist stores have led the casualty list, with 2,750 closures announced so far this year. Gymboree, Dressbarn, Charlotte Russe and Charming Charlie contributed a majority of these closures.
  • Overall, Payless has closed the most stores so far in 2019.
  • Major retailers have announced 3,064 store openings for 2019. In the full year 2018, major retailers opened 3,083 stores.
  • By sector, general merchandise stores announced the greatest number of store openings. Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar together account for a significant majority of these openings.
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Executive Summary

  • Macy’s fiscal 2Q19 revenues were $5.55 billion, down 0.5% year over year and even with the consensus estimate. The company reported 2Q19 adjusted EPS of $0.28, down 47.2% from the year-ago period and lower than the consensus estimate of $0.46.
  • The company saw comparable sales growth of 0.2% on an owned basis compared to the consensus estimate of 0.4%, and 0.3% on an owned plus licensed basis, even with the consensus estimate.
  • For FY19, management lowered EPS guidance to $2.85-3.05 from $3.05-3.25 and compared to the consensus estimate of $3.05. The company reaffirmed flat net sales growth guidance and said it anticipates comparable sales growth of flat to 1% for owned stores and owned and licensed stores.

Executive Summary

  • Tencent reported 2Q19 revenues of ¥88.82 billion (US$12.9 billion), up 20.6% year over year and below the ¥92.93 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was ¥2.46 (US$0.35), up 19.1% year over year and beating the ¥2.23 consensus estimate.
  • Combined Weixin and WeChat monthly average users (MAU) were 1.1 billion, up 7.1% year over year and fee-based registered value-added service (VAS) subscriptions were 168.9 million, up 9.7% year over year.
  • The new FinTech and Business services segment reported revenues of ¥22.9 billion (US$3.3 billion), up 37.3% year over year, driven by commercial payments and the cloud business.

Executive Summary

  • Canada Goose reported adjusted EPS of C$(0.21) for 1Q20, beating the consensus estimate of C$(0.24), and revenue of C$71.1 million, beating the consensus estimate of C$55.1 million.
  • The gross margin was 57.5%, down 650 basis points year over year, reflecting a greater proportion of wholesale revenue.
  • The company reiterated its fiscal 2020 outlook: at least 20% revenue growth and 25% adjusted EPS growth from this year’s C$830.5 million and C$1.36, respectively.

Executive Summary

  • Cisco reported fiscal 4Q19 revenues of $13.43 billion, up 4.5% and in line with the consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.83, beating the consensus estimate by two cents.
  • Security was the fastest-growing segment, growing 14% in the quarter, and Cisco is investing in and extending its subscription-based security innovations across all networking domains, including expanding its family of cloud-security solutions to help secure identity, endpoints and the network.
  • For the fiscal first quarter, Cisco guided for revenue growth of 0-2% and adjusted EPS of $0.80-0.82, below the $0.83 consensus estimate.

Executive Summary

This is the third report in our US Back-to-School series for 2019. Here, we review fashion trends and apparel spending intentions that will shape demand for clothing and footwear this back-to-school season.

  • Fashion trends this season include patchwork denim, graphic stripes, monochromatic and mixed florals. Activewear and sneakers are popular categories.
  • Some 34% of back-to-school shoppers’ budget is expected to be spent on apparel, for an estimated $261 average per shopper, an increase of 4% year over year.
  • More and more schools are requiring students to wear uniforms, with 26.7% of US parents saying their children will wear uniforms this year.
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Executive Summary

“New Retail” is a model for integrating online retail, offline retail and logistics across a single value chain powered by data and technology. In this biweekly series, we cover important developments in New Retail in China and beyond. Here’s what’s happening:

  • JD.com launched a gifting mini program JD Gift on WeChat to boost social e-commerce.
  • JD.com opened its first services center for luxury goods in Beijing to scale up its servicing capability in the field of high-end products.
  • Suning acquired the Circle K convenience store business in Guangzhou from Hong Kong-listed Fung Group.
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Executive Summary

In this report, we review how discount formats and warehouse clubs are competing in the US grocery market.

  • Warehouse clubs currently have a lead over discount stores in the online grocery market with a substantial investment in e-commerce and omnichannel capabilities.
  • Discount stores are growing store numbers aggressively. Dollar General focuses on rural areas while both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, with a combined strength of more than 30,000 stores, focus on urban and suburban areas targeting millennials.
  • International hard discounters such as Aldi are investing to grow, too: Aldi plans to invest $5.3 billion to become the third largest grocer in the US by store count by 2022.
  • Based on our research, discount stores currently have an edge over warehouse clubs in the areas of store openings, reach, operating and gross margin and overall impact on the sector.
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