Deep DiveHoliday 2026: The Last Mile—Elevated Costs Confront a Cautious Consumer, Signaling Margin Risk Sujeet Naik, Analyst Sector Lead: John Mercer, Head of Global Research and Managing Director of Retail Research October 8, 2026 Reasons to ReadDiscover how retailers and carriers can navigate a more complex holiday 2026 last mile, as softer online demand, inflation-driven deal seeking, higher carrier charges and logistics labor constraints reshape fulfillment strategies. Learn how delivery preferences, carrier diversification and automation can help protect margins, improve resilience and sustain service levels through the holiday peak. Read this report to uncover answers to these and other questions: How will softer online demand and more cautious consumer spending reshape holiday order timing and last-mile fulfillment patterns? How should retailers adapt fulfillment strategies as shoppers continue to prioritize regular delivery, reliability and affordability over speed? How can retailers manage rising carrier surcharges and transportation costs without putting additional pressure on margins or shoppers? What role can regional and alternative carriers play in strengthening capacity, flexibility and cost control during peak season? How can automation, earlier staffing plans and logistics partnerships help retailers reduce operational risk during the holiday peak? Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon; FedEx; GLS US; SpeedX; Target; UPS; UniUni; Veho; Walmart; Wayfair. Data in this report include: Holiday shopping channel preferences and inflation impacts; online fulfillment method usage and preferences; FedEx and UPS peak-season shipping surcharges; and transportation, warehousing and utilities workforce trends. Related research: All of our US holiday retail research Holiday 2026: US Consumer Survey and Retail Outlook—Unit Growth Under Pressure as Consumers Rethink How They Shop Already a subscriber? Log in You are currently viewing a preview of this report. Please select an access option to view the full report. Hide Options - Show Options + Get unlimited access to all our research with one of our subscription plans. View Subscription Plans or Contact us to purchase this report. Contact us ✕ This document was generated for