Market Navigator: US Retail and E-Commerce—Seizing Opportunities Amid a Changing Landscape

Published – November 2024

Each Market Navigator report offers an in-depth, data-rich view of a retail, consumer or technology sector and is packed with data on sectors, segments, companies and consumers. Our analysts discuss at greater length the sector themes they are observing and the insights they are forming on their markets. We intend these definitive guides to serve as points of reference to those in the retail ecosystem, guiding readers’ strategic decision-making and assisting them in tapping opportunities and navigating disruption in retail and adjacent industries.

In this Market Navigator, Coresight Research explores the US retail and e-commerce market as a whole. Dive into our report today to gain insights on emerging ideas and opportunities in US retailing, understand the growth trajectory of the market as we head in 2025, and explore the competitive landscape. You’ll discover comprehensive survey data on consumer behavior and preferences. We also discuss critical themes in the market, aligning with our RESET framework.

Key topics covered in this report include the Ozempic economy, the future of physical stores, retail consolidation across the industry, sustainability, and the power of AI (artificial intelligence) and GenAI (generative AI).

Included with this Market Navigator: 

• Grab quick access to charts, data points and conclusions in the presentation download
• Access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download

Data in this research report include:

• Total and online market sizes and year-over-year growth rates for the US retail market, 2019–2028E
• US consumer spending on major discretionary categories, broken down by retail goods and services, 2000–2023
• US retail sales, online and total, broken down by sector, 2019–2023
• US revenues for leading offline and online retailers and operating margins, 2019–2023
• Proprietary survey data on how consumers have been changing their shopping habits in response to inflation; the importance of sustainability; and where they are shopping for food and nonfood products, among other topics

Introduction

What We Think

• The Coresight Research View on US Retail
• The Future of Stores
• The Changing Channel Landscape
• Discounters To Deepen Their Footholds
• Industry Consolidation Wave To Continue
• Adoption of Lean Inventory Practices Will Increase
• Continued Downward Pressure on Operating Margins
• Sustainability Remains Crucial
• The Ozempic Economy Will Influence Demand

Blue-Sky Thinking

• The Shifting Landscape of US Retail
• Hyper-Personalized Shopping Journeys
• Potential Use Cases of GenAI

The US Retail Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity
• The US E-Commerce Market
• Market Factors

Competitive Landscape

• Revenues
• Operating Margins
• Key Comparable Metrics
• Store Numbers and Changes
• Store Traffic
• Benchmarking to BEST

Survey Analysis: Where Consumers Are Shopping in the US and What Are They Buying; Plus, Consumer Perceptions of Stores and E-Commerce

• All Retailers: Food Products
• All Retailers: Nonfood Products
• E-Commerce: Grocery and Nongrocery Products
• Consumer Perceptions of Stores and E-Commerce

Themes We Are Watching

• Responsive
• Engaging
• Socially Responsible
• Expansive
• Tech-Enabled

Macro Context

• The Coresight Research View on the US Consumer Economy
• Unemployment and Wages
• Real Disposable Income
• Savings Rate
• Interest Rates and the Housing Market
• Gasoline Prices and Consumer Sentiment
• Consumer Spending

Global Observations and Learnings

• Global Retailers Turning Digital Services and Platforms into Revenue Streams
• Rise of AI-Powered Livestreaming in China
• UK Retailers Are Utilizing AI-Powered Cameras to Track and Improve Store Stock and Safety

Technologies with Potential

• AI- and ML-Based Demand Forecasting
• Item-Tagging Tech (RFID and IoT)
• Web3 Technologies for Tracking and Tracing
• Loss Prevention Technology
• Pricing Optimization Technology
• Customer Data Platforms
• Associate Enablement Tools
• GenAI Chatbots and Apps

Real Estate and Store Openings/Closures

Retail Innovators

• Bynder
• Centric Software
• Locus

Notes and Methodology

Appendix: Company Profiles

Appendix: About the Coresight Research BEST Framework

Appendix: About the Coresight Research RESET Framework

Albertsons, Amazon, Burlington Stores, CVS Health, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Kohl’s, Kroger, Lowe’s, Lululemon Athletica, Macy’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, Target, The Home Depot, The TJX Companies, Urban Outfitters, Walmart

1. US Consumer Spending on Major Discretionary Categories: Split Between Retail Goods and Services (% of Total)
2. The Coresight Research Future of Physical Stores Framework
3. The CORE Framework for GenAI in Retail from Coresight Research
4. US Retail Market (Ex. Gasoline and Automobiles): Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
5. US Retail Market (by Channel): Online and Offline Sales (USD Bil.), Growth (YoY % Change) and Penetration (%)
6. US Retail Sales (by Sector): Sales (USD Bil.) and Growth (YoY % Change)
7. US Online Retail Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
8. US Online Retail Sales (by Sector): Sales (USD Bil.), Growth (YoY % Change) and Share of Total Online Sales (%)
9. US: Real GDP YoY Growth (%)
10. US: Federal Funds Rate (%)
11. US: Unemployment Rate and Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (%)
12. US Single-Person Households and Population Aged 65+ (Millions)
13. US Consumer Sentiment Index
14. US: Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index and Import Price Index (YoY % Change)
15. Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Grocery as a Result (% of Respondents, Three-Month Rolling Average)
16. Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Nongrocery as a Result (% of Respondents, Three-Month Rolling Average)
17. Leading Offline and Online Retailers: US Revenues (USD Bil.)
18. Leading Offline and Online Retailers: Share of US Retail Sales (%)
19. Selected Leading US Retailers: US E-Commerce Revenues/GMV (USD Bil.)
20. Selected Leading US Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms: Total Global Operating Margins* (Ordered by FY23 US Revenue)
21. Selected Leading US Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms (Ordered by FY23 US Revenues): Key Comparable Metrics
22. Selected Leading US Retailers: US Store Numbers (Ranked by Store Count)]
23. US Selected Leading Retailers (Ordered by FY2023 US Revenue): YoY % Change in Store Traffic
24. The BEST Framework
25. BEST Framework and Benchmarking
26. US Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Food Products from in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents, Four-Week Rolling Average)
27. All Respondents: Average Age and Household Income, by Retailer Used for Food Purchases in the Two Weeks Preceding Each Survey
28. US Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Nonfood Products from in the Past Two Weeks (% of Respondents, Four-Week Rolling Average)
29. All Respondents: Average Age and Household Income, by Retailer Used for Nonfood Purchases in the Two Weeks Preceding Each Survey
30. US Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Made E-Commerce Purchases in the Past Three Months Ended May 13, 2024 (% of Respondents)
31. US Consumers: Whether They Think Shopping in Physical Stores or Shopping Online Is Better, by Factor (% of Respondents)
32. Selected Public US Retailers: 2Q24 Inventory Values (YoY % Change) and Commentaries on Supply Chain
33. Selected Notable M&A Transactions in the US Retail Sector, YTD 2024*
34. All Respondents: To What Extent Sustainability Affects from Which Retailers They Choose to Purchase Essentials (% of Respondents)
35. All Respondents: Which Options They Consider the Most Important Types of Environmental Sustainability for Retailers (% of Respondents)
36. US Fashion Resale Market: Sales by Distribution Channel (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and E-Commerce Penetration (Right Axis; Online Sales as a % of Total Sales)
37. US Retail Media Advertising Revenue (USD Bil.)
38. US Unemployment Rate (Left Axis; %) and US Average Hourly Wages (Right Axis; USD)
39. US Real Disposable Income: YoY Change (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
40. Personal Saving Rate (Left Axis; %) and YoY Change (Right Axis; PPTs)
41. New Housing Starts (Left Axis) and Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
42. US Regular All Formulations Gas Price (USD per Gallon; Left Axis)* and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Right Axis)
43. US Real and Nominal Consumer Spending Growth (YoY % Change)
44. Identified Technologies with Relevance and Potential in the Retail Industry
45. US Retail Market: Number of Major Retail Store Openings, Store Closures and Net Store Openings
46. US Retail Market: Major Store Openings in 2024*
47. US Retail Market: Major Store Closings in 2024*

Appendix

1. BEST Framework
2. RESET Framework