Market Navigator: US Grocery Retailing—How Quick Commerce, AI and Polarized Consumer Needs Are Shaping Competition

Published – August 2026

Discover how the US grocery retailing sector can navigate intensifying competition as scale, quick commerce, agentic AI and the growing divide between value and wellness reshape the market. Read this report to uncover answers to these and other questions:

• How are mass merchants, warehouse clubs, online marketplaces and discount operators changing the competitive landscape for traditional grocers?
• How can regional grocers defend customer loyalty as rapid delivery weakens the historic advantage of store proximity?
• How will AI shopping assistants transform product discovery, basket building, personalization and purchasing decisions?
• How should retailers respond to persistent value-seeking, private-label growth and pressure on household budgets?
• Where can retailers capture opportunities linked to health and wellness, GLP-1 adoption, fresh-food differentiation and omnichannel shopping?

Data in this report include: US grocery market forecasts; online grocery sales and penetration trends; grocery channel and retailer market shares; retailer revenues, margins, store footprints and traffic; and consumer survey findings on rapid delivery, AI shopping assistants, online grocery preferences and health-focused purchasing.

Introduction

What We Think

Themes We Are Watching

• Amazon Reorients Grocery Strategy Around Fast Fulfillment and Whole Foods
• Rise in Quick Commerce
• Agentic Commerce

The US Grocery Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity
• Category Breakdown
• Channels Breakdown
• Online Market
• Market Factors
• Iran Conflict and Fuel Price Inflation
• Increase in Single-Person Households and the Older Population
• Shift From Food-At-Home to Food-Away-From-Home
• In-Store Shopper Visits

The Companies

• Competitive Landscape: Retailers
• Store Metrics

Retail Innovators

The Consumer

• In-Store

Appendix: Ranking Retailers by Store Numbers

Notes and Methodology

• Selected Sources and Further Reading

Ahold Delhaize; Albertsons; Aldi; Amazon; Costco; Dollar General; Grocery Outlet; H-E-B; Kroger; Lidl; Publix; Sprouts Farmers Market; Target; Walmart; Wegmans; Whole Foods Market.

US Grocery Retail Dynamics

Timeline of Amazon’s Recent Grocery Delivery Initiatives in the US

Whole Foods: Total US Store Count (Left); Comparable Store Traffic, YoY % Change (Right)

Amazon US In-Store Grocery and Estimated Online Food and Beverage Sales (USD Bil.) and Growth Rate (YoY % Change)

Online Grocery Shoppers: Proportion That Had Bought Groceries Online Using Rapid Delivery (Same-Day or Under Two Hours) in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)

US Food and Beverage Private-Label and Name Brands: Dollar and Unit Sales Value Growth (YoY % Change)

All Respondents: Which Features of an AI-Shopping Assistant Would Be Most Attractive to Them (% of Respondents)

US Grocery Retail Market: Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)

In-Store CPG Unit Sales: YoY % Change (Four Weeks Ended Dates Shown)

US Grocery Market: Estimated Distribution of Grocery Retail Sales (%)

US Online Food and Beverages: Total Retail Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)

US Online Share of Food Retail Spend (%)

US Online Food and Beverage Categories: Retail Sales and Sales Growth, 2025 and 2026

Online Grocery Shoppers: Whether They Mainly Had Online Grocery Orders Delivered or Collected Them in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)

US Food-at-Home Inflation and Total Inflation (YoY % Change)

Finished Consumer Foods PPI Vs. Food-at-Home CPI (YoY % Change)

US: Average Retail Price For Regular Gasoline, All Formulations (USD)

Annual SNAP Benefits (USD Bil.)

State-Level Restrictions on SNAP-Eligible Purchases and Implementation Date

US: Single-Person Households and Population of Those Aged 65+ (Thousands)

Average Age and Household Income, by Retailer Used for Food Purchases in the Two Weeks Preceding Each Survey

Share of Total US Food Spending: Food-at-Home vs. Food-Away-from-Home (%)

US Grocery Sector: Shopper Visits (YoY % Change)

Leading US Grocery Retailers: Total US Revenues and US Grocery Revenues (USD Bil.; Ranked by Grocery-Specific Revenues)

US Grocery Retail Market Share (%)

Leading US Grocery Retailers: EBIT Margins (Ranked by FY25 Revenue; %)

US: Major Grocery Retailers’ Store Numbers (Ranked by FY25 Revenue)

Leading US Grocery Retailers: Total Gross Square Feet (Ranked by FY25 Revenue; Mil. of Sq. Ft.)

Leading US Grocery Retailers: Sales Per Store (Ranked by FY25 Revenue; USD Mil.)

Leading US Grocery Retailers: Sales Per Square Foot (Ranked by FY25 Revenue; USD)

Leading US Grocery Retailers Store Traffic: YoY % Change (Ranked by FY25 Revenue)

Retail Innovators Impacting the Grocery Sector

In-Store Grocery Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Bought Groceries In-Store in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)

Online Grocery Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Bought Groceries Online in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)

Respondents Who Expect To Buy Groceries Online in the Next 12 Months: Reasons for Buying Online vs. at a Physical Store (% of Respondents)

Shoppers Who Do Not Expect To Buy Groceries Online in the Next 12 Months: Reasons Why They Do Not Expect To Buy Groceries Online in the Next 12 Months (% of Respondents)

Top 50 Grocery Retailers by US Store Numbers