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Weinswig’s Weekly January 25, 2019

hree Ways China Will Lead Digital Retail Trends in 2019 — and Why These Trends Are Likely to Drive Consolidation Among Major Platforms
China continues to lead the world in the integration of online and offline retail, most notably through Alibaba Group’s New Retail concept. We predict that retailers in the U.S. and Europe will increasingly adopt elements of New Retail in 2019. But what else is worth keeping an eye on in Chinese digital retail? This week, we discuss three digital trends we expect to see in 2019, and we note that all three are likely to strengthen the competitive advantages enjoyed by China’s market-leading apps and platforms, such as WeChat, Douyin (also known as TikTok) and Tmall.

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Ahold Delhaize (ENXTAM: AD) 4Q18 and FY18 Update: Strong Performance Prompts Narrowing of Guidance

Ahold Delhaize reported a trading update for its fourth quarter and FY18:

In 4Q18, net sales were €16.5 billion, up 3.0% at constant currency, roughly in-line with the consensus of €16.48 billion by StreetAccount, but lower than the 3.6% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Net consumer online sales grew 26.4% at constant exchange rates.
For FY18, net sales increased 2.5% year over year at constant exchange rates to €62.8 billion. Net consumer online sales reached €3.5 billion.

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AI Creates Smarter Living: Takeaways from the TechLIFEStyle Conference in Hong Kong

The Coresight Research team attended TechLIFEStyle conference, part of StartmeupHK, held in Hong Kong January 22, 2019. StartmeupHK is an initiative launched by InvestHK to promote Hong Kong as a startup destination, connecting entrepreneurs and investors. The theme of the event was “living smarter, living better,” looking at how lifestyle technology can be woven into everyday life. These are some highlights of the event.

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Carrefour (ENXTPA: CA) 4Q18 Update: Latin America Picks Up the Slack as France Is Hit by Disruption

Carrefour reported group comparable sales excluding automotive fuel were up 1.9% year over year in 4Q18, versus 2.1% growth in 3Q18 and ahead of the consensus estimate of 1.0% recorded by StreetAccount. Performance in France was weak and growth was driven by Latin America. Total sales at actual exchange rates were down 2.3% year over year, impacted by currency effects. 

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Chinese New Year Preview: Year of the Pig Celebrations to be Worth ¥1 Trillion to Retail as Digital Gifting and Traveling Continue to Go Big

Retail and food-service sales during Chinese New Year grew steadily from 2011 to 2018. During the 2018 Chinese New Year Golden Week (February 15-21), retail sales reached ¥926 billion (about $146 billion), 10.2 % higher than the same period in 2017 —and more than double what it was in 2011, according to Ministry of Commerce statistics.

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VF Corp (VFC) 3Q19 Results: Raises Guidance as Active Segment Propels Gains

VF Corp. reported adjusted fiscal 3Q19 EPS of $1.31, up from $1.01 in the year-ago quarter and above the $1.10 consensus estimate. Total revenues were $3.94 billion, up 8.0% year over year (10% at constant currency). Excluding Kontoor Brands (scheduled to be spun off at the end of April), revenues rose 12%.

By segment, Outdoor revenues rose 11% to $1.61 billion; Active revenues increased 16% to $1.14 billion; Work segment revenues rose 9% to $62.6 million and Jeans revenues declined 27% to $67.8 million. By channel, direct-to-consumer (DTC) rose 9%, Digital (within DTC) rose 21% and Wholesale increased 6%. By region, Asia Pacific sales rose 16%, led by China, up 23%; followed by a 9% gain in the U.S., 7% in the Americas (non-U.S.) and 4% in EMEA.

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UK Holiday 2018 Retail Sales and Trading Wrap-Up: December Growth Slows as Uncertainty Accelerates Structural Shift Away from the Midmarket

Momentum in the retail sector decelerated meaningfully in December, as measured by both value and volume (real terms). Value sales growth slowed from 4.2% in November to 2.1% in December. This was despite a number of retailers reporting a better month in December following an unusually tough November.

Across November and December in aggregative (our definition of the holiday period), sales were up 3.0% year over year.

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US Digital Payments Take Off, with Unexpected Winners and Losers

The digital payments landscape is evolving rapidly as consumers and merchants adopt more innovative modes of payments. Cash is declining worldwide, while credit and debit cards have gained popularity. Mobile payment and wallet services are also gaining traction, supported by growing smartphone use, faster data rates and greater Internet penetration.

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Aldi and Lidl in the US: Aldi Climbs the Grocery Rankings

Aldi is America’s eighth-biggest grocery retailer by estimated 2018 revenues, according to Euromonitor International. It has grown revenues by an estimated CAGR of 12.7% over the past five years. After a shaky start in the U.S. market, Lidl has diversified into a range of store formats. Lidl is continuing to open stores at a steady pace, and its recent acquisition of the 27-strong Best Market Chain suggests a renewed impetus to grow its footprint in the U.S.

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Luxury FirstLook 2019—Digital Acceleration: Key Takeaways

Coresight Research attended Luxury Daily’s Luxury FirstLook 2019: Digital Acceleration conference in New York. The event was packed with senior executives from luxury brands, retailers, agencies, publishers and service providers. We were there to discuss digital acceleration, but most in the room agreed luxury companies are still in the early stages of adopting cutting-edge technology tools – not keeping up with their more digitally savvy clientele.

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