Executive Summary

In our first report in our US Back-to-School series for 2019, we provide an outlook for US retail this back-to-school season. 

• We expect to see 2.0-2.5% year-over-year growth in nonfood retailer sales from July to September (the back-to-school shopping period) this year, a significant slowdown from last year’s 4.4%. 
• Consumers are interested in good deals, making discount stores the second most popular destination for back-to-school shopping, behind department stores.
• Apparel is the biggest category for back-to-school shoppers, and electronics is the biggest for back-to-college.