Economic Analysis: CONSUMER SPENDING BUOYED BY RISING WAGES AND LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT

Executive Summary

• The US unemployment rate in October edged down to 4.9%, which was in line with the consensus estimate and lower than the September reading of 5.0%.
• In the US, real PCE in September increased by 0.3% month over month, reflecting an increase in spending on durable goods.
• The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 1.7% year over year for the month; the rate was still slightly below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
• The gas price has been range-bound between US$2.15 and US$2.26 from October to the middle of November, and closed at US$2.187 on November 10, 2016.
• In the US, advance estimates of October retail sales were US$465.9 billion, up by 0.8% month over month and 4.3% year over year.