Insight Report2026 US Retail Predictions Update: Five Predictions Tested by Macro Shocks John Mercer, Head of Global Research and Managing Director of Retail Research August 4, 2026 Reasons to ReadDiscover how US retailers are navigating 2026’s macroeconomic shocks while consolidating market share through technology, experience and alternative revenue. We review our predictions for US retail for 2026. Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions: How has consumer spending remained resilient despite volatile inflation and an unexpected Iran conflict-driven energy shock? What conversion advantages are AI-assisted shopping assistants delivering for retailers like Walmart and Lowe’s? Why are top retailers investing in store experience and experiential services rather than aggressive new technology rollouts? How are supply chain disruptions accelerating the need for agility, and what role is agentic AI playing in response? Which retailers are using retail media and alternative revenue streams to drive profitability and consolidate market share? Companies mentioned in this report include: Albertsons, Adobe, Amazon, Aritzia, Canadian Tire, CVS, Google, Kroger, L’Oréal, Lowe’s, Magnite, Meta, Microsoft, Ross Stores, Shopify, Square, Target, Uniqlo, Vizio, and Walmart. Data in this report include: US consumer financial and economic sentiment indices and gasoline price movements; core retail sales growth rates; AI conversion metrics; tax refund data; advertising revenue growth; and supply chain tariff refund eligibility figures. Other relevant research: 2026 Retail Predictions: US—Five Forces Powering the Next Retail Transformation Already a subscriber? Log in You are currently viewing a preview of this report. Please select an access option to view the full report. Hide Options - Show Options + Get unlimited access to all our research with one of our subscription plans. View Subscription Plans or Contact us to purchase this report. Contact us ✕ This document was generated for