Insight ReportHow the US–Iran Deal Changes the Inflation Outlook for Retail John Mercer, Head of Global Research and Managing Director of Data-Driven Research June 16, 2026 Reasons to ReadDiscover how the June 2026 US–Iran deal could reshape the inflation outlook for US retail into the holiday quarter. Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions: How could oil-price normalization limit further CPI acceleration? Why does the lag between oil prices and CPI create a credible path to inflation moderation by the holiday quarter? What factors are supporting near-term consumer spending resilience—and where is the key risk window? Data in this report include: oil and gasoline price movements; CPI inflation projections; retail sales growth; tax refund levels; tariff refund eligibility; back-to-school and holiday retail sales estimates. Related research: The US Consumer: Inflation, Gas Prices, Sentiment and Learnings from Earnings Season Energy and Inflation Update + Retail Tech for the Holidays: Premium Subscriber Call Energy Shock: As Gasoline Prices Decline, When Will Peak CPI Hit? Already a subscriber? Log in You are currently viewing a preview of this report. Please select an access option to view the full report. Hide Options - Show Options + Get unlimited access to all our research with one of our subscription plans. View Subscription Plans or Contact us to purchase this report. Contact us ✕ This document was generated for Other research you may be interested in: Shoptalk Spring 2025 “Shark Reef” Startup Pitch Competition: Innovator ProfilesWeekly UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker 2025, Week 16: B&M and Tesco Provide Store-Opening PlansDollar Tree To Divest Family Dollar: Here’s What It Means—Consumer + Real Estate Data AnalysisAnalyst Corner: Wayfair Turns a Profit for the First Time in Four Years—Four Drivers of Its Performance, with Madhav Pitaliya
