Reasons to Read

Discover why 2026 will bring steady but uneven progress for the US consumer—and what that means for retail strategy and growth.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• Why will the US consumer economy remain bifurcated in 2026, rather than seeing a broad-based recovery?
• How will inflation, interest rates and policy changes continue to pressure lower-income households into 2027?
• To what extent will higher-income consumers, asset prices and the “wealth effect” drive discretionary retail growth?
• How will housing-market dynamics and mortgage rates shape demand in categories such as home improvement?
• What structural competitors—such as GLP-1 drugs—and behavioral shifts will continue to divert consumer spending?

Companies mentioned in this report include: Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, Kroger, Uber Eats, Uber, Postmates, Burlington Stores, Ross Stores, The TJX Companies, Temu and Shein.

Data in this report include: US macroeconomic growth, inflation and interest-rate forecasts; housing-market and stock-market outlooks; migration and inbound travel trends; GLP-1 drug spending projections; and consumer sentiment by income group.

Other relevant research:

• 2026 Sector Outlooks: Ebook
• 2026 Retail Predictions: US—Five Forces Powering the Next Retail Transformation