Reasons to Read

Understand how resilient retail sales are shaping up amid uncertainty around tariffs, inflation and consumer sentiment. Discover proprietary, ML-driven retail sales growth projections as we enter to the holiday quarter.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• What retail sales growth is forecasted through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and what are the key drivers behind the projections?
• How is the labor market, particularly labor force participation, influencing retail demand?
• In what ways are shifts in disposable income, savings and consumer sentiment impacting spending?
• What are the key upside and downside scenarios shaping the retail sector outlook for the holiday season ahead?

Data in this report include: US retail sales forecasts; model-predicted vs. actual retail growth; labor force, wage, and inflation metrics; consumer sentiment and disposable income trends; housing market data.

Alongside this report, you can access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download above.

Other relevant research:

• Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators in the US.
• All our coverage of tariffs
• The US Retail Sales Databank features retail sales values and year-over-year growth, in total and by sector, by year and by month. This Databank is updated monthly.
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Survey Databank provides additional insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly surveys. Our Weekly US Consumer Sentiment infographic series complements our survey reports with selected findings on consumers’ financial and economic expectations each week.