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Holiday 2020: US Retail Outlook—Five Reasons Why We’re Looking for 5% Growth

We provide our first estimates for the US retail outlook for holiday 2020, covering expected total retail sales growth and demand by category and sector. We discuss five factors supporting our estimates—including food retail demand, a switch from services to products, and earlier holiday shopping in October. We also consider three wildcards that could have hard-to-predict impacts on holiday spending, including the November election outcome and store capacity issues.

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