What's Inside

We present our outlook for US retail and the consumer economy, updating our previous outlook from March 2023.

In this report, we consider why the consumer economy resembles a game of chutes and ladders, whether real declines in retail sales will continue, whether US retail is overinflated and why we may be entering an era of renewed services spending.

Data in this report include:

• US retail sales—recent growth rates, real multi-year expansion and Coresight Research growth projections
• Proprietary Coresight Research US survey data on consumers’ reactions to inflation in retail
• The balance between consumer spending on retail goods and discretionary services
• Consumers’ excess savings levels and the pace of depletion
• Coresight Research survey data on US consumers’ savings firepower
• Consumer credit levels

Other relevant research:

• Five Retail Opportunities Amid Economic Uncertainty
• Coresight Research US Consumer Tracker survey reports
• Our monthly reports keep you up to date on retail sales (in total and by sector) and key consumer indicators, focusing on China, the UK and the US.