Executive Summary

The Coresight Research team is attending CES 2019 (formerly, the Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas this week. Here are some of the notable startups and startup trends we saw on day one:

  • Snips offers voice assistant technology as a white-labelled solution for enterprise device manufactures.
  • Dreamlight provides a “smart” sleep mask, a complex sleep-aid system that uses lighting and sound to help people sleep better.
  • Lululab showed offLumini, an artificial intelligence skincare assistant that analyzes facial skin to make personalized skincare product recommendations.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research is attending CES 2019 (formerly, the Consumer Electronics Show) in Las Vegas this week. These are our hottest takeaways from the first day:

  • Machines will increasingly talk to you — and to each other.
  • Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are exploding in terms of the number of applications. However, many have yet to prove their value.
  • Keyboards and screenswill disappear: Voice will take over.
  • Changes in digital health will transform our relationships with doctors.
  • Everyone is talking about unstaffed stores and automatic vending machines.

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Executive Summary

Technology is already disrupting the way apparel sourcing operates. We’ll look at how these innovations will change the apparel sourcing of the future. Key findings include:

  • Technology is changing apparel sourcing. In the future, sourcing will combine offshoring and onshoring to deliver speed to market and gain competitive advantage. Production closer to the end market is becoming more cost effective thanks to automation.
  • Offshore sourcing will become more transparent, efficient and sustainable. Technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) will enable companies to identify problems immediately and intervene promptly, making apparel sourcing overall more efficient and cost effective.
  • Automation will mean fewer people are needed, making production lines faster and more cost effective. Tech firms such as Grabit and Softwear Automation are collaborating with companies including Esquel Group and Li & Fung to automate apparel production.
  • Apparel manufacturers and brands such as Tianyun Garments, Adidas and Levi’s are experimenting with highly automated onshore production facilities to better respond to end market consumer demand.
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Executive Summary

Artificial intelligence (AI) is putting new tools into the hands of retailers, helping them eliminate friction in the shopping process, deepen their engagement with customers, uncover business insights and automate processes.

  • AI enables machines to use massive amounts of data to uncover trends and insights, making new markets accessible and businesses more efficient. However, data is the key, as more data beats better algorithms in terms of AI efficacy.
  • According to market intelligence firm IDC, global spending on AI will reach $19.1 billion in 2018, a 54% year-over-year increase, and is projected to grow to $52.2 billion in 2021. The retail industry is expected to account for $3.4 billion in AI spending in 2018.
  • In retail, AI applications fall into three main categories: computer vision, language processing and data analytics.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” previews the upcoming CES 2019 trade show (formerly the Consumer Electronics Show), which will be held in Las Vegas next week.
  • Months after Toy “R” Us Inc. sought to liquidate its holdings in the U.S., merchants have taken up space left behind by the retailer. The buildings are said to have modest rents and longer leases than is standard.
  • British entertainment retailer HMV Retail Ltd. has called in administrators following weak Christmas sales. The beset retailer operates 130 locations and employs around 2,200 staff.
  • E-commerce firm JD.com Inc. plans to restructure its largest revenue-generating unit, JD Mall, into three business departments, according to documents seen by The Wall Street Journal.

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Executive Summary

  • Coffee shop sales in China hit some ¥30 billion (US$4.4 billion) in 2017, and are expected to reach ¥1 trillion (US$145.9 billion) by 2025,according to consultancy firm Qianzhan.
  • Luckin Coffee has moved in quickly to tap into the growing popularity of coffee in what is traditionally a tea-drinking society: The company has grown to over 2,000 stores since opening its first store in January 2018. The coffee chain is leveraging “New Retail” strategies and digitalization to fuel its expansion in China and to challenge market leader Starbucks.
  • The company’s rapid expansion is presenting challenges, though: The coffee chain incurred losses of ¥857 million (US$124 million) between January and September, 2018, according to a Sina Technology report.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our Monthly Consumer Update rounds up key metrics that reflect consumer demand in the US, the UK and China.  We focus on direct, leading indicators of the health of the consumer economy: wage growth, price changes and retail sales growth.

Highlights from our November Consumer Update:

  • In the US, food price inflation remains low, year-over-year.
  • In the UK, earnings growth continued to outpace consumer price growth.
  • In China, retail sales grew 8.1% year over year in November, slowing from October’s 8.6% growth and September’s 9.2% growth.
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Executive Summary

  • British fashion retailer Next reported an increase of 1.5% in total full-price sales for the holiday period from October 28 to December 29, beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%.
  • Strong online sales growth was partly offset by falling in-store sales.
  • For FY19, the company maintained its guidance for full-price sales growth of 3.2% but lowered its profit guidance.

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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  What triggers Chinese consumers to start an online search?

The most common reason (30.4% of respondents) is information on instant messaging apps such as WeChat.

Executive Summary

India and China two are of the world’s largest economies, but China’s economy has strength in many areas India’s does not. We examine some of these in this report.

  • China’s retail market dwarfs India’s significantly: In 2017, India’s retail sector was worth $672 billion, while China’s was $5.8 trillion.
  • India’s luxury market was worth $30 billion, or 4% of India’s total retail market, while China’s was $1.4 trillion, or 23% of the total market, in 2017.
  • India ranks lower, at 100, on the World Bank’s ease of doing business index. China ranks 78.
  • Just 34% of India’s population is urban, compared to 60% of China’s.
  • The reason for many of the discrepancies are due to difference in culture, political structure and planning mechanisms.
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Executive Summary

Key economic data from November show the once break-neck pace of China’s economic growth has continued to slow.

  • Retail sales grew 8.1% in November, the slowest rate of growth in 15 years, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
  • The government is also seeking to rein in debt, so has been cutting spending on infrastructure – once used as a key tool to drive economic growth.
  • The government has responded to slowing economic growth with new initiatives to stimulate demand – especially given the uncertainty caused by the US trade dispute.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date in 2018, US retailers have announced 5,437 store closures and 2,963 store openings.
  • Sears Holdings my close 50 to 80 stores in addition to the 182 previously announced.
  • Gymboree plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for the second time in less than two years, to keep stores open as it looks for a buyer.
  • Year to date in the UK, companies have announced 1,395 store closures and 785 store openings.
  • New Look has enlisted advisers to explore opportunities to cut its £1.3 billion ($1.6 billion) debt.
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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” takes a look back at key events in retail this year and a look forward to what is on the horizon for 2019.
  • S. retailers wrapped up one of the strongest holiday seasons in years, with shoppers crowding stores for last-minute Christmas gifts and, as of a few days before the holiday, delivery companies able to keep up with the surge in online orders.
  • In the U.K., the Saturday before Christmas, or “Super Saturday,” saw an incremental boost in shoppers, according to data from consumer insights firm Springboard. High-street footfall rose by 1 percent year over year, but overall footfall fell by 0.7 percent.
  • In 2019, China’s retail sales are expected to grow by 9 percent and contribute 65 percent to GDP growth, according to recent data from China’s Ministry of Commerce.

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our monthly UK Retail Sales Report reviews the latest sector data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Highlights from our November UK Retail Sales Report:

  • The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported surprisingly solid retail growth for November, despite downbeat commentary by some major UK retailers.
  • Total sales were up 4.4% year over year, driven by ongoing volume increases.
  • Growth was driven by specialized retail sectors, such as food specialists, DIY stores and health-and-beauty retailers.
  • The grocery sector saw growth of just 1.1% year over year, while clothing retailers’ growth was only 0.5%.
  • The ONS reported online retail sales exceeded 20% of all retail sales for the first time, in line with our forecast for e-commerce to account for 20.6% of total November and December sales.
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Executive Summary

China recently unveiled the “People’s Republic of China E-Commerce Law” that will take effect January 1, 2019. The results will be mixed.

  • E-commerce has grown its share of retail sales in China, yet regulations were still loose. So, the Chinese government moved to tighten them.
  • E-commerce will become more regulated under the new law: Consumers will enjoy better protection and e-commerce operators will have to deal with stricter regulations.
  • The good news is that the new law also increases the amounts Chinese consumers can buy online from overseas sources, with the single-purchase limit rising from ¥2,000 to ¥5,000 and the yearly limit from ¥20,000 to ¥26,000.
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