Executive Summary

We discuss three growth segments in European apparel, which look set to keep the pressure on legacy midmarket apparel retailers:

  • High-Quality Value Retailers: Primark has raised standards in discount apparel. It appears to have drawn shoppers from midmarket rivals while consolidating the value segment. T.K. Maxx likely had a similar impact. Consolidation means the apparent strength of the discount segment is not a rising tide that lifts all boats.
  • Internet Retailers: Zalando aims to grow gross merchandise volume (GMV) from €6.6 billion in 2018 to €20 billion by 2023/24. But Zalando, like ASOS and Boohoo Group, is facing a challenge as fulfillment cost ratios rise in line with consumer expectations. More positively, marketing costs as a share of revenue are tending to decline across the pure-play space.
  • Major Sportswear Brands: In the UK, Germany and France, sales of sports apparel have grown considerably faster than sales of all apparel. Even as brands focus on direct-to-consumer channels, we see demand for premium-branded sportswear supporting multibrand platforms such as ASOS, Zalando and Amazon. We see a degree of symbiosis in increased demand for major sportswear brands and the growth of online fashion platforms.
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Executive Summary

Coresight Research tracks store closures, openings and bankruptcies for a select group of retailers in the US and the UK.  Our Weekly Store Tracker focuses on department stores and specialty retail stores, including, but not limited to, those selling softlines, hardlines, consumer electronics, groceries and furniture.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

Highlights from this week’s Store Tracker:

  • Year to date, US retailers have announced 5,399 store closures and 2,396 store openings. This compares to 5,726 closures and 3,243 openings for all of 2018.
  • The Shops & Restaurants at Hudson Yards (in Manhattan) opened March 15 with 720,000 leasable square feet anchored by a three-floor Neiman Marcus.
  • Ikea will open its first US city-center small-format store in Manhattan in April.
  • Shoes of Prey has ceased operations worldwide.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 310 store closures and 327 store openings.
  • Stationery chain Office Outlet is now in administration; its 90 stores will continue to operate.
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Executive Summary

  • Nike 3Q19 revenues rose 7%, driven by 13% growth for Nike footwear led by Greater China.
  • The operating margin was flat at 13% of sales as gross margin expansion was offset by investment spending in Nike’s transformational initiatives.
  • The outlook for 4Q19 is high-single-digit revenue growth offset by FX, about 75 bps gross-margin expansion and high-single-digit SG&A expense growth.

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Executive Summary

  • Next reported FY19 total sales of £4,167.4 million, up 1.9% year over year, and in-line with the consensus estimate recorded by StreetAccount.
  • The company reported diluted EPS of £4.33, up 4.1% year over year, but marginally below the consensus of £4.34 recorded by StreetAccount.
  • For fiscal 2020, the company guided total full price sales to increase 1.7% year over year and expects EPS to grow 3.6% year over year to £4.49.

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Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” discusses Amazon’s inroads into the beauty category.
  • Dollar General said it will open 975 new stores in the US this year and remodel 1,000 older stores with new checkout lines to drive last-minute impulse purchases.
  • Sainsbury’s and Asda stated they would reduce prices of everyday items by around 10% should the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority approve their merger.
  • Fung Retailing and JD.com have collaborated to unveil a new AI-powered checkout system in two Circle K stores in Hong Kong. The system is the first of its kind in Hong Kong and is designed to make checkout an easy, hassle-free process.

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Executive Summary

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard reported fiscal 3Q19 revenue of $16.5 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $16.8 billion and up 4.6% from 3Q18.
  • Merchandise and Service segment revenue increased 8.8% year over year and Road Transportation Fuel segment revenue increased 3.4% year over year.
  • Revenue for the Other segment, however, decreased 2.3% year over year.
  • Alimentation Couche-Tard will open 42 stores in upcoming quarters.

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Executive Summary

  • Williams-Sonoma reported 4Q18 revenues of $1.84 billion, up 9.3%. Adjusted EPS was $2.10, up 25.3% and ahead of the $1.96 consensus estimate.
  • Comps increased 2.4%, in line with consensus, driven by West Elm, whose comps increased 11.1%.
  • The company guided for 2019 revenues of $5.67-5.84 billion, a comp increase of 2-5%, and adjusted EPS of $4.50-4.70, above the $4.44 consensus estimate.

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Executive Summary

In our weekly series Insights from China, we examine issues that affect international brands and retailers in China. We cover areas such as policy, consumer behavior, consumer sentiment, government regulations and the competitive landscape — as they affect the business operations and future outlook. 

This week, we look at Alibaba’s recent investments in courier company STO Express and how the logistics race in China has stepped up.

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Executive Summary

This presentation was given at the Vision Monday (VM) 2019 Global Leadership Summit, which brings together senior industry executives, optical retailers, leading eyecare professionals, suppliers and key opinion leaders from the worldwide optical industry. It discusses retail trends in 2019, including physical retail and retail technology, in the US and Asia.

Topics include:

  • Solid holiday sales, but store closures and bankruptcies continue
  • Retailers need to offer spectacular experiences and boundaryless retail
  • Retailers are embracing technology trends, such as AI, data models and IoT
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Executive Summary

  • ASOS reported 2Q19 group revenues of £658.5 million, up 11.0% year over year on a constant-currency basis (up 13% year over year as reported). US sales declined due to an unexpected surge in orders causing disruption.
  • The company’s retail gross margin expanded 40 basis points year over year.
  • The company maintained its previous guidance for FY19.

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Executive Summary

  • Ocado reported 1Q19 retail revenue of £404 million, up 11.2% year over year.
  • The company’s average orders per week grew 11.3% year over year, but the average order size was down 0.2% year over year.
  • Ocado‘s Andover customer fulfilment center experienced a devastating fire in February, and the company says it will provide an update on the impact of fire on its 10-15% revenue growth target ”in due course.”

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Executive Summary

Coresight Research’s monthly reports keep you up to date on US and UK retail sales, US retail traffic and in-store metrics, selected US retailers’ same-store sales and key global consumer indicators. Click here to view our full collection of Monthly Reports.

Our US Monthly Retail Traffic and In-Store Metrics Report reviews year-over-year changes in selected store-based metrics, including sales, traffic and conversion rates.

Highlights from our February Retail Traffic report:

  • US store traffic declined 7.3% year over year in February. The conversion rate grew 0.4 percentage points, average transaction value (ATV) grew 1.8% and the product return rate increased by 0.1 percentage points.
  • February performance varied over the course of the four weeks, with traffic performing best in the first two weeks of the month in preparation for Valentine’s Day.
  • The Midwest experienced the largest declines in sales and traffic at 8.5% and 9.2%, respectively. The South had the smallest declines for sales and traffic at 2.5% and 6.3%, respectively.
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Executive Summary

The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tracks tax return filings on a weekly basis.

  • As of March 8, the IRS had received 67.7 million tax returns, down 2.5% year over year.
  • A total of 53.5 million refunds had been issued as of that date (down 3.3% year over year), totaling $160.9 billion (down 3.2% year over year) and averaging $3,008 (up $4 or 0.1% year over year).
  • The top three expected uses for refunds were savings (50% of respondents expecting refunds said they would save the money), paying down debt (34%) and everyday expenses (22%), according to the NRF’s recent annual Tax Returns Survey.
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QUESTION OF THE WEEK:  Question: What Is the Most-Listed Makeup Brand on Amazon.com?

Answer: Coresight Research data show Covergirl is the most-listed makeup brand on Amazon, with 2,925 products listed on the site.

Executive Summary

  • H&M reported 1Q19 net sales of SEK 51.02 billion, up 10.0% year over year, a slightly slower pace compared the 12% growth recorded in 4Q18, but marginally ahead of the consensus estimate of SEK 50.0 billion recorded by StreetAccount.
  • Net sales increased by 4% year over year in local currencies versus the 4.2% consensus recorded by StreetAccount.
  • H&M will publish its full 1Q19 report on March 29, 2019.

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