Executive Summary

The fashion industry underwent significant changes over the past decade and continues to evolve quickly. Driven by advancements in digital channels, digitally native retailers are adapting to consumer preferences – but are also opening brick-and-mortar stores. In this report, we analyze the online-to-offline fashion market and look at what drives digital natives to get physical:

  • Pure-play digital retailers are creating physical storefronts to provide an “all-channel” experience.
  • Digital ad costs are becoming more expensive than other media – and digital is becoming less effective. Digitally native brands find physical locations help fill that need.
  • Physical stores are a point of discovery for emerging brands: New stores generate an average 45% lift in web traffic, according to an International Council of Shopping Center (ICSC) survey.
  • New York remains the top city for offline stores and pop-ups, a testament to the perceived power of internationally renowned flagship cities for fashion discovery.
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Executive Summary

With this series, 30 Global Retail Cities, we profile the world’s major shopping cities – from fashion capitals such as Milan to shopping hubs such as Honolulu and Bermuda. We curated the top retail stores in each city, along with must-see shopping districts, major retail events and innovative store formats.

Click here to view the full 30 Global Retail Cities series.

Highlights:

  • Newbury Street is a popular hub, hosting hundreds of shops, right off of the Boston Public Garden.
  • A sizable population of young adults, attracted by higher education, has created a large demand for new, trendy shopping options.
  • Fashion boutiques specializing in women’s clothing have sprung up in abundance, offering more affordable options than traditional department and specialty stores.
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Executive Summary

  • Pinduoduo reported 2Q19 revenues of ¥7.3 billion ($1.1 billion), up 169% year over year and beating the consensus estimate of ¥6.2 billion ($878.8 million).
  • Operating expenses decreased, and operating margin improved to (20.4)%.
  • There were 483.2 million active buyers on Pinduoduo’s platforms for the 12 months ended June 30, 2019, up 41% year over year.

Executive Summary

  • Lowe’s reported 2Q19 adjusted EPS of $2.15, up 3.9% and comfortably beating the $2.00 consensus estimate. Revenues were $20.99 billion, up 0.5% and ahead of the $20.93 billion consensus.
  • Comps were 2.3%, beating the 1.7% consensus estimate.
  • Gross margin contracted to 32.1% in 2Q19, compared to 33.0% in 2Q18.
  • The company provided guidance for 2019, predicting revenue growth of around 2%, in line with the 1.7% consensus estimate, comps growth of approximately 3% and adjusted EPS of $5.45-5.65, in line with the consensus of $5.61.

Executive Summary

  • HP reported fiscal 3Q19 revenues of $14.60 billion, flat year over year, and in line with the $14.62 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.58, up 11.5% year over year and beating the $0.55 consensus estimate.
  • Personal systems was the fastest-growing segment, driven by growth in PC desktops, which grew 6.8%. Revenues in the other subsegment (which includes POS systems) declined 1.9%.
  • HP raised its fiscal 2019 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.31-$2.35 (up 14%-16%) from $2.14-$2.21 previously.

Executive Summary

  • Salesforce reported fiscal 2Q20 revenues of $4.00 billion, up 21.8% and in line with the $3.96 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.66, down 6.9% year over year and beating the $0.47 consensus estimate.
  • Marketing and commerce cloud was the fastest-growing segment, growing 36.3% year over year, driven by strong subscription and support growth.
  • Salesforce adjusted fiscal 2020 guidance, raising revenue guidance to $16.75-16.90 billion (up 25-27% year over year) from $16.10-16.25 billion and updating adjusted EPS guidance to $2.82-2.84 (up 3% year over year).

Executive Summary

  • L Brands 2Q19 revenues were $2.90 billion, down 2.8% year over year and lower than the consensus estimate of $2.95 billion. The company reported 2Q19 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, higher than the consensus estimate of $0.20 and lower than the year ago period.
  • Comparable sales were down 1% compared to a 3% increase last year and below theconsensus estimate of a 0.2% rise.
  • The company issued EPS 3Q19 guidance of ($0.05)-$0.05 compared to the consensus estimate of $0.08. The company expects 3Q19 comps to be down low single digits to up slightly and full year comps to be up low single digits. The company reiterated adjusted full-year EPS guidance of $2.30-2.60 compared to the consensus estimate of $2.46.

Executive Summary

  • This week’s note “From the Desk of Deborah Weinswig” looks at China’s many shopping holidays – and how Western companies can tap into the opportunity.
  • Kroger and Walgreens are broadening their partnership, launching Walgreens health and beauty brands in Kroger and the Kroger Express grocery and Kroger Pickup service to 35 Walgreens drugstores.
  • German fashion pure play Zalando will fulfill orders placed on adidas.fr, in a trial partnership with Adidas. This is the first time Zalando has allowed brands to use its logistics operation outside of the Zalando shop.
  • Uniqlo opened its first “roadside” store in the Philippines, a new model that engages with local communities by stepping out of its mall-only store format. The new store is in a residential area with offices and schools.

Executive Summary

Our Weekly US and UK Store Openings and Closures Tracker reports on store closures, openings and bankruptcies.

Click here to view our full collection of Weekly US and UK Store Trackers.

  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 7,888 store closures and 3,239 store openings. This compares to 5,844 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 427 store closures and 626 store openings.
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Executive Summary

  • Home Depot reported 2Q19 EPS of $3.17, up 3.7% and beating the consensus estimate of $3.09. Revenues were $30.8 billion, up 1.2% and marginally below the $31.0 billion consensus estimate.
  • Comp sales were up 3.0%, below consensus of 3.3%. US comps were up 3.1%.
  • The consensus estimates for 3Q19 call for Home Depot to report revenues of $27.55 billion, up 4.8%, and EPS of $2.53.

Executive Summary

In our biweekly Supply Chain Briefing series, we discuss how technology is transforming the various stages of the retail supply chain, including product design, demand forecasting, manufacturing, logistics, warehousing, last-mile delivery and sales. We also discuss other developments that relate to the retail supply chain.

This report discusses the chief supply chain officer, a new, emerging but increasingly important role in supply chain.

  • The chief supply chain officer (CSCO) is a relatively new c-suite role reporting to the CEO to oversee all supply chain processes.
  • As supply chain gains increasing importance, the growing complexity of the global supply chain is driving the need for the CSCO.
  • We see industries such as retail and apparel creating CSCO positions to ensure operational excellence in logistics and supply chain.
  • A CSCO can increase efficiency, connecting different divisions to support digital transformation.
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Executive Summary

  • Nordstrom reported 2Q19 revenues of $3.87 billion, down 5.1% year over year and below the consensus estimate of $3.92 billion. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) declined 5.3% year over year to $0.90, beating the consensus estimate of $0.76.
  • Nordstrom comps decreased by 5.1% compared to consensus of down 3.5%. By category, full price declined 6.5% compared to consensus of down 5.0%. Off-price decreased by 1.3%, in line with the consensus estimate.
  • The company lowered its 2019 guidance and now expects a net sales decline of 2%, versus the prior guidance of a net sales decline of 2% to flat. Nordstrom lowered the top end of its EPS guidance from $3.65 to $3.50, for a guidance range of $3.25 to $3.50.

Executive Summary

  • Target reported 2Q19 revenues of $18.42 billion, up 3.6% and beating the $18.29 billion consensus estimate. Adjusted EPS was $1.82, beating the $1.62 consensus.
  • Comps grew 3.4%, beating the consensus of 3.0%. Comparable digital sales grew 34%, contributing 1.8% to comps.
  • Target raised FY19 EPS guidance to $5.90-6.20 from the prior range of $5.75-6.05 and expects FY19 GAAP EPS from continuing operations.

Executive Summary

  • Urban Outfitters reported fiscal 2Q19 revenues of $962.3 million, lower than the consensus estimate of $980.6 million and down 3% year over year. The company reported 2Q19 earning per share (EPS) of $0.61, above the consensus estimate of $0.58 and down 27.4% from the year ago period.
  • Comparable net sales decreased 3%, compared to the consensus estimate of down 2%, driven by negative retail store sales growth, partially offset by growth in digital.
  • Management said 3Q19 should bring improved comps driven by improved assortments in the apparel category. Gross margin for 3Q19 could decline by approximately 200 basis points.

Executive Summary

This presentation, produced in cooperation with Planalytics, discusses the state of the retail industry and provides an outlook for the back-to-school season. The Coresight section provides a macro backdrop update, including data on the retail industry and companies. The Planalytics section reviews the effect of Q1 weather on retail and provides an outlook for Q2.

Topics include:

  • Stabilization in retail sales
  • Mixed same-store sales results from retailers
  • The Labor-Day weather outlook is cool in the East, warm in the West
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