NRF Forecasts 4.3%–4.8% Increase in US Holiday Sales

Executive Summary

• The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2018 holiday forecast, which calls for a year-over-year sales increase of 4.3%–4.8%, taking total sales to $717.45–$720.89 billion, up from $687.90 billion last year.
• The 2018 forecast is below last year’s growth of 5.3% which was the largest increase since the 5.2% rise seen in 2010. This year’s forecast is above the five-year average of 3.9%.
• The forecast “reflects the overall strength of the industry,” including “a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence.”This year, there are 32 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, providing one more shopping day compared to last year.
• The NRF forecasts that retailers will hire 585,000–650,000 seasonal workers this holiday period, up from 582,500 last year.

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