Retail 2025: China Retail Predictions

Published – January 2025

Our annual report on the China retail market—part of our Retail 2025 series of outlook reports—details six predictions around trends that Coresight Research expects to transform retail in the country throughout 2025. From the impact of government stimulus packages and innovative brick-and-mortar experiences to the “pingti” trend and GenAI (generative artificial intelligence), discover the trends you need to stay on top of in the China retail market.

Data in this research report include:

• China retail sales and year-over-year change, 2020–2025E
• Total Consumer Price Index in China, 2023 and 2024
• Estimated Singles’ Day gross merchandise volume (GMV) by platform type, 2021–2024
• Proprietary survey data on why Chinese consumers elected not to make Singles’ Day purchases in 2024

Introduction

Market Scale and Opportunity

Six Predictions for China Retail in 2025: Coresight Research Analysis

1. A Revival from Consumer Frugality via Stimulus Packages
2. Experiential Shopping Experiences with a Focus on Story-First Purchases
3. AI: From Back-End Efficiency to Consumer-Facing Applications
4. The Evolving Shopping Journey: From Festivalization to Diversification
5. The Pingti Trend—Younger Consumers Prefer Value to Name Brands
6. Immense Opportunities for New Experiences in Physical Retail

What We Think

• Implications for Brands/Retailers
• Implications for Real Estate Firms
• Implications for Technology Vendors

Notes

9-page PDF report

Alibaba, Blackmores, Busy for You, Douyin, JD.com, Meituan, NIKE, Prada), SKP-S Beijing, Urban Revivo, Zara

• China Retail Sales and YoY % Change
• China: Total CPI (%)
• Singles’ Day: Estimated GMV by Platform Type (USD Bil.)
• Whether Consumers Spent on Singles’ Day Promotions (% of Respondents)
• Singles’ Day Shoppers Who Did Not Wait for the Festival’s Promotions To Make a Desired Purchase: Reasons Why They Chose Not To Wait (% of Respondents)
• Annual Sales of Pingti Brands (Left; RMB Mil.) and Luxury Brands on Taobao and Tmall (Right; RMB Mil.)