Retail 2024: Five Forces and Five Trends Shaping UK Retail

Published – January 2024

The Coresight Research Retail 2024 series of reports looks ahead to the prospects for retail in 2024, exploring key trends by geography (namely, the US, the UK, China and India) and sector. We will also discuss trends in healthcare and technology.

In this report, we present five forces and five trends that will shape UK retailing in 2024, which Coresight Research expects to be a year of transition for consumers and retailers in the UK.

Data in this research report include:

• UK real retail sales growth, retail inflation and overall (CPIH) inflation, Jan–Nov 2023
• UK Bank rate, 2018–2024
• The proportions of UK consumers undertaking selected strategies due to increases in the cost of living, based on proprietary survey data
• UK grocery market share breakdown by retailer
• Top fashion retailers used by UK 18–27-year-olds in the prior 12 months, based on proprietary survey data

Introduction

Five Forces and Five Trends Shaping UK Retail in 2024

• Five Forces Impacting UK Retail in 2024
• Five Trends in UK Retail for 2024

What We Think

• The Coresight Research View on the UK Consumer Economy
• Implications from This Report
• Implications for Brands and Retailers
• Implications for Technology Vendors

Notes and Methodology

12-page PDF report

Aldi, Boohoo (LON: BOO), H&M (STO: HM-B), Lidl, Marks & Spencer (LON: MKS), Next (LON: NXT), Ocado (LON: OCDO), Primark—owned by Associated British Foods (LON: ABF), TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), Sainsbury’s (LON: SBRY), Shein and Tesco (LON: TSCO).

1. Five Forces We Expect To Impact UK Retail in 2024
2. UK: Real Retail Sales Growth (YoY), Retail Inflation (for Total Retail ex. Automotive Fuel) and CPIH, 2023 (%)
3. UK: Bank Rate, 2018–2024E (%)
4. UK: Impact of Income Tax Threshold Freezes Between Fiscal 2023 and Fiscal 2029
5. Five Trends in UK Retail for 2024
6. UK Consumers: Actions They Are Undertaking Because of Increases in the Cost of Living (% of Respondents)
7. UK Grocery Market: Share Breakdown by Retailer (%)
8. UK: Fashion Retailers 18–27-Year-Olds Have Purchased from in the Prior 12 Months
9. Estimated UK Retail Media Advertising Revenue (GBP Bil.)
10. Estimated Global Revenues of Web3 Service Providers (USD Bil.)
11. A Linear Supply Chain Vs. a Web3-Enabled, Decentralized, Intelligent Supply Chain