Holiday 2024: US Consumer Survey and Retail Outlook—Early Shopping and Deal-Seeking To Define the Season

Published – October 2024

Where, when and how will US consumers spend for holiday 2024? We analyze findings from our proprietary Holiday 2024 US Consumer Survey to offer critical insights on the shape of demand and consumers’ shopping expectations for the holiday season.

We present our holiday sales projections, examine how shopper behavior will differ this year from last, and assess how the current economic and inflationary environment will impact spending.

Data in this research report include proprietary survey findings on:

• When consumers expect to start holiday shopping
• Consumers’ holiday spending relative to 2023
• Purchase expectations by product category
• Where consumers expect to shop and their preferred payment methods

Executive Summary

Holiday Sales Projection

Holiday Shopping

Overall Holiday Spending Relative to 2023

Purchase Expectations by Product Category

Where Consumers Expect To Shop

Role of Social Media in Holiday Shopping

Channel Preference for Holiday Shopping

Deal-Seeking and the Impacts of Inflation

Payment Preferences

What We Think

Methodology

24-page PDF report

Amazon, Kohl’s, Target, TJX, Walmart

• Nominal Holiday-Quarter Retail Sales (ex. Gas and Auto): Total and E-Commerce (YoY % Growth)
• US: Leading Indicators of Retail Sales as of September 19, 2024
• When Consumers Plan Begin Holiday Shopping (% of Respondents)
• Where Consumers Expect To Find Holiday Gift Ideas (% of Respondents)
• Spending Expectations Relative to Last Year (% of Respondents)
• Spending Expectations Relative to Last Year, by Household Income (% of Respondents)
• Spending Expectations for Products Relative to Last Year in Dollar Terms (% of Respondents)
• Spending Expectations for Services Relative to Last Year in Dollar Terms (% of Respondents)
• What Consumers Expect To Buy as Holiday Gifts This Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
• Net Percentage of Respondents Who Expect To Spend More on Each Category This Holiday Season Than Last Holiday Season (%)
• Types of Retailer That Holiday Shoppers Expect To Shop for Holiday Gifts, Either Online or In-Store (% of Respondents)
• Retailers That Consumers Expect To Make a Holiday Purchase From—Top Retailers (% of Respondents)
• Retailers That Consumers Expect To Make a Holiday Purchase From—More Retailers (% of Respondents)
• Degree of Importance of Influencing Factors for Consumers When Choosing a Retailer for Holiday Gift Shopping (% of Respondents)
• Proportion of Respondents for Whom Selected Factors Are Important in Deciding Where To Shop for Holiday Products (% of Respondents)
• Proportion of Consumers Who Agree with Selected Statements on the Use of Social Media as Part of the Holiday Shopping Process (% of Respondents)
• All Respondents: Where They Expect To Buy Gifts This Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
• Respondents Who Expect To Shop Online for the Holidays: Primary Reason To Shop Online (% of Respondents)
• Consumers’ Approach to Deal-Seeking During the Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
• Impact of Product Price Increases This Holiday Season on Consumers’ Shopping Behavior (% of Respondents)
• Payment Methods Consumers Expect To Use The Most During Holiday Shopping This Year (% of Respondents)
• Respondents Who Expect To Use Credit/Borrowing Option for Holiday Shopping: Share of Total Spending They Expect To Put on Credit/Borrowing This Year (% of Respondents)
• Payment Methods That Consumers Expect To Use the Most During Holiday Shopping, by Income (% of Respondents)
• Payment Methods Consumers Expect To Use The Most During Holiday Shopping, by Age (% of Respondents)