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1Q2017 Recap and Spring Retail Update (Planalytics)

Spring Retail Update
• Recent sales and earnings results indicate a continuing
struggle in retail.
• Store closures, bankruptcies and management changes
are shaking up the industry.
• The media barrage of the retail industry doesn’t help
perception.
• Uncertainty exists in terms of the forward picture;
things probably get worse before they get better.

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Takeaways from VF Corp.’s 2017 Investor Day

The theme of VF Corp.’s Investor Day 2017 was “diversified growth.” The company outlined its five-year plan for growth, which incorporates mid-single-digit sales growth and a 10%–12% earnings CAGR. The company expects lower growth in the plan’s earlier years and accelerating growth in the later years. In terms of regional growth, VF Corp. expects it to be driven by international markets, specifically China. The company expects the direct-to-consumer channel, particularly digital, to grow the fastest. Sales growth in the company’s three biggest brands (Vans, The North Face and Timberland) will contribute as well.

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Australian Apparel Market Primer

Australian retailers are relatively positive about their prospects for 2017. In Deloitte’s most recent Retailers’ Christmas Survey,
64% of respondents are expecting their earnings to increase by 5% or more in 2017, with such levels of optimism at their
highest since we started this survey five years ago. However, this optimism needs to be tempered somewhat with realities of the
macro-economic outlook. The ‘wealth-factor’ arising from appreciating house prices that has buoyed parts of the market is
starting to slow down, whilst we continue to see low wage growth. Against this background, the retail environment in Australia
is likely to remain challenging, particularly with the continued influx and expansion of global retailers in Australia.

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