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January 2019 US Monthly Retail Traffic and In-Store Metrics Report: Post-Holiday Fatigue and Inclement Weather Drive Underwhelming January Traffic

All regions posted sales and traffic declines in January compared to the same period last year. The Midwest registered the largest year-over-year decline in traffic of all regions at 17.5%, owing to severe weather conditions. With warmer and wetter conditions, the South experienced the lowest decline, at 5.8%.

The Midwest also recorded the largest year-over-year in-store sales decline among all regions, down 16.8%, whereas the West, which enjoyed warmer and drier conditions, reported the smallest decline, down 1.4%.

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December 2018 US Retail Sales: Year-Over-Year Growth Slows to Just 1.0% as Most Sectors Experience a Sluggish December

Our measure of core retail sales is non-seasonally-adjusted sales excluding gasoline and automobiles. This metric increased by just 1.0% year over year in December, slowing dramatically from the growth in preceding months, including a 5.2% uplift in November. This resulted in total holiday-period sales coming in at $693 billion, up by just 2.9% year over year.

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Sector Overview: Retail REITs — An Industry in Flux

For US retail REITs, occupancy rates are improving, vacancies are decreasing and rent asking rates are increasing, but store traffic and other metrics remain negative. REITs are welcoming non-traditional occupants, particularly food. Just 20% of “A” malls generate 72% of all mall sales in the US.

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10 Retail Trends for 2019: Get Ready for Retail Reinvention

Get ready for better stores and better retailing. We expect 2019 to be a year of reinvention — and not just for the retail sector as a whole, but for physical stores in particular. As we outline over the following pages, we anticipate that the year will be marked by spectacular retail, fast retail and smart retail.

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US Holiday Comparable Sales Growth Results: A Mixed Picture So Far

As US retailers report comparable sales for the 2018 holiday season, we’re seeing a mixed bag of results. Some retailers such as Costco and Boot Barn did well, reporting strong comparable sales growth and beating consensus estimates. Retailers such as Target, Barnes & Noble and Buckle showed sequential comparable sales growth improvement, but not as strong. Comparable sales at Macy’s and L Brands weakened sequentially.

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