US Back to School 2023: Retail Outlook—Macro Context and Consumer Plans​

What's Inside

As we move into peak summer ahead of the new school year, we present our outlook for the US back-to-school (BTS) retail season. We contextualize our overall expectations with macroeconomic data and findings from a proprietary survey of US consumers.

Data in this research report include:

• Estimated US BTS retail sales, 2020–2023E
• Macro context—leading indicators of US retail sales, inflation
• US consumers’ plans to shop for BTS—when, where, what and how much
• US consumer attitudes to BTS shopping
• How migration has changed the BTS landscape—the under-18 population, by geography

Companies mentioned in this report include: Amazon, Dollar Tree/Family Dollar, Target, TJX, Walmart

Other related research:

• June 2023 Leading Indicators of US Retail Sales: Total Gains To Be in the Low Single Digits Due to Flat Disposable Income Growth
• For more insights into consumer behaviors and expectations in US retail, click here to view our full collection of US Consumer Tracker and US Consumer Tracker Extra
• The Coresight Research US Consumer Tracker Databank provides insight into US consumer behaviors from our weekly tracker surveys.