Holiday 2019: US Retail Outlook—Anticipating 4% Growth

Executive Summary

Continuing our Holiday 2019 series, this report offers our full look at expected US retail demand this November and December.

• We expect to see a 4.0% year-over-year increase in US retail sales during the holiday months of November and December.
• This is in the context of recent solid retail growth: Total retail sales in the latest three months expanded 4.1% year over year.
• We expect to see slightly more than 23% of all nonfood retail sales go online this holiday season, up 200 basis points year over year.
• Lower gas prices are a plus for holiday spending, providing as much as an incremental 50 basis points to sales growth.
• This year has six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than 2018 – the shortest possible holiday calendar.

Click here to read Coresight’s coverage on US holiday retail and gain key retail insights for 2019 and prior years.