Executive Summary

Spring Festival, or the “Chinese New Year,” is a major spending period in China. In 2018, Chinese consumers spent ¥926 billion ($146 billion) shopping and dining out during the week-long holiday period, an increase of 10.2% compared to the 2017 holiday season, according to Ministry of Commerce statistics. 

These are our predictions for the Lunar New Year starting February 5, 2019 — the year of the pig:  

• We expect total New Year Golden Week retail and food-service sales to reach approximately ¥1 trillion this year, up by around 8%. 
• Spring Festival retail sales have risen steadily for more than a decade, but we see a slowing pace of growth in line with China’s slower pace of economic growth and mild economic uncertainty.
• Companies are already ramping up promotions on e-commerce platforms.
• Box office receipts will continue to grow.
• Digital gifting continues to go big.
• Traditions are shifting: more Chinese are opting to spend what was once one of the most important family holidays on the road, heading to domestic and international vacation spots.