Insight ReportCEO Brief: Early Holiday 2026 US Retail Expectations John Mercer, Head of Global Research and Managing Director of Data-Driven Research February 25, 2026 Reasons to ReadGain insights into early expectations for the 2026 holiday season and understand key factors influencing consumer spending trends. Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions: How is total retail sales growth projected to perform in 4Q26? What factors are driving consumer spending optimism, especially among higher-income households? What potential impacts could the 2026 midterm elections have on consumer sentiment and retail spending? Companies mentioned in this report include: Burlington Stores, Levi Strauss & Co., Lowe’s Companies, Macy’s, Ross Stores, Shein, The Home Depot, The TJX Companies, Temu Data in this report include: Retail sales projections for 4Q26; Consumer spending expectations across income groups; Impact of tax refunds, interest rates, and elections on consumer confidence Already a subscriber? Log in You are currently viewing a preview of this report. Please select an access option to view the full report. Hide Options - Show Options + Get unlimited access to all our research with one of our subscription plans. View Subscription Plans or Contact us to purchase this report. Contact us ✕ This document was generated for Other research you may be interested in: Disrupting Retail: Lessons from SHEIN and TEMU on Redefining Consumer Engagement and Supply Chain InnovationDecember 2025 US Retail Sales Outlook: Projecting 3+% Growth for the New YearFebruary 2025 US Retail Sales: First Year-Over-Year Drop Since the Pandemic—Electronics and Department Stores Lead Declines2026 Retail Predictions: Global—Five Forces Redefining Retail Performance Worldwide
