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US 2016 HOLIDAY HOMESTRETCH: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday

•Retailers promoted holiday deals earlier and
at a greater extent than last year
• Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy and Target rolled
out early-bird online specials on November 1
• Retailers expanded their mobile messaging two
weeks before Thanksgiving
The days leading up to Thanksgiving
captured more holiday sales than last year
• Wednesday before Thanksgiving: Sales
increased by 10.4% year over year, according to
First Data
• E-commerce traffic was up 15% the weekend
before Thanksgiving, according to Verizon

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Retail Revolution – Disrupt or Be Disrupted – The Tenant of the Future (ULI)

Many stores are now part of the last-mile solution. In the US, some older malls are being repurposed as warehousing and delivery depots.
• Stores are leveraging sharing-economy technology to serve
as fulfillment centers for local deliveries.
• Malls are being used innovatively as warehouses, delivery
depots and pickup locations for customers.
• In North Randall, Ohio, outside Cleveland, a former mall is
becoming a new Amazon warehouse.

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Retail Revolution – Disrupt or Be Disrupted (XSPECS)

Retail Traffic Is Down
• Retail traffic has continued to struggle, although it has been
showing slight improvement
• According to RetailNext, retail store traffic in July declined by
just 5.5%, its smallest drop since January 2016
• The conversion rate, which represents how many shoppers
became buyers, rose by 0.5% in both June and July, the highest
rate increase in almost a year

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Background on Amazon and Retail

US Retail Bankruptcies Are at Post-recession Peak
• Year to date, 14 retailers have filed for bankruptcy
• That is more than the number of filings over the entire year
in 2016
• Retail bankruptcies are on track to reach their highest level
since 2009, when 18 retailers filed for bankruptcy
• And there are likely more to come

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Global Retail Revolution Brings Threats as well as Opportunities

M&A chatter:
• Nordstrom announced it is exploring a “going private” transaction
(June 8, company press release)
• American Eagle Outfitters is reported to be bidding for
Abercrombie & Fitch with private equity firm Cerberus Capital
Management
(May 25, Reuters.com)
• Deckers Brands announced that it is reviewing strategic alternatives
(April 25, company press release)
• The parent company of Jimmy Choo announced that it is reviewing
strategic alternatives for the shoe brand
(April 25, Bloomberg.com)
• BJ’s Wholesale Club put itself up for sale in April
(April 14, New York Post)

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