US Grocery Retailing—Real Estate Insights: Value and Specialty Grocers Drive Polarized Expansion

In the US, the grocery real estate market is becoming increasingly polarized, with physical expansion concentrated at the extremes: Value-focused retailers, such as discounters and dollar stores, continue to grow aggressively, while fresh-format and specialty grocers are scaling up to serve shoppers seeking fresher, healthier offerings. In contrast, traditional grocers have seen stagnation or contractions in their store footprint.

Ahead of our 2025 Market Navigator on US grocery retailing, we explore the key real estate trends and themes we are watching in the space, including the polarization in openings, tighter real estate supply leading to lower vacancy rates and higher rents, and Amazon’s push into the physical grocery space, among others.

Data in this research report include:

• Total sales for the US grocery market, 2020–2029E
• Store counts and footprint CAGRs of major grocery retailers in the US, June 2021–June 2025
• Total store openings and closures for the entire US grocery sector, 2019–2025 YTD
• Visit share of grocery retail segments in the US, 1Q21–1Q25

Introduction

Market Scale and Opportunity

US Grocery Retailing—Real Estate Insights: Coresight Research Analysis

• Current Store Estates and Recent Changes
• Overall Store Openings and Closures
• Store Traffic
• Real Estate Themes We Are Watching

What We Think

• The Coresight Research View on US Grocery Retail
• Implications from This Report
• Implications for Real Estate Firms
• Implications for Tech Vendors

Notes and Methodology

• Selected Sources and Further Reading

10-page PDF report

Aldi, Amazon, Costco Wholesale Club, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Grocery Outlet, Sprouts Farmers Market, Trader Joe’s and Walmart.

1. US Grocery Retail Market: Total Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
2. 50 Major Grocery Retailers: Store Counts, Footprint CAGRs and YoY Changes
3. US Grocery Market: Major Retail Total Store Openings, Total Store Closures and Net Store Openings
4. US Grocery Market: Total Store Openings by Selected Grocers, 2025
5. US Grocery Market: Total Store Closings by Selected Grocers, 2025
6. Visit Share of Grocery Retail Segments in the US (%)
7. 50 Major Banners Selling Grocery Products: Store Traffic (Mil.) and YoY Growth (%)
8. US Grocery-Anchored Retail, Available Space (Mil. of Square Feet), Vacancy Rate (%) and Market Asking Rent Growth (%)
9. Amazon Fresh: US Store Count (Left) and Traffic YoY % Change (Right)