US Grocery Retailing—Market Forecast and Competitive Landscape: Nontraditional Grocers To Gain Share Amid Weak Volume Demand and Tariff Pressures

As part of our Market Navigator series, Coresight Research explores the US grocery market. Dive in today to understand how tariffs, demographics and digital disruption are reshaping the US grocery market in 2025 and beyond.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• How will weak demand and a fragile macroeconomic backdrop shape grocery growth in 2025?
• Which grocery categories and supply chains are most at risk from tariffs?
• Why is food-at-home inflation expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025?
• How does the aging demographic profile of supermarket shoppers threaten traditional grocers?
• What advantages allow non-traditional players like Walmart, Costco, and Amazon to dominate the US grocery landscape?

Data in this report include: US grocery retail sales and growth; in-store CPG unit sales trends; grocery channel distribution; online grocery sales and e-commerce penetration; top food and beverage categories in online grocery; consumer grocery spending and inflation impacts; agricultural import values and sources; demographic shifts in household and shopper composition; food-at-home vs. food-away-from-home spending; retailer revenues, margins, and market share; store counts, gross square footage, sales per store and per square foot; and grocery store traffic patterns.

Introduction

The US Grocery Sector

• Market Scale and Opportunity
• Channel Breakdown
• Online Market
• Market Factors
• Tariffs
• Long-Term Factors

The Companies

• Competitive Landscape: Retailers
• Store Metrics
• Proprietary Survey Analysis: Where Consumers Are Shopping for Groceries and Why

What We Think

• Implications for Retailers
• Implications for Technology Vendors

Notes and Methodology

19-page PDF report

Ahold Delhaize, Albertsons, Aldi, Amazon, Costco, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Grocery Outlet, H-E-B, Kroger, Lidl, Natural Grocers, Publix, Save A Lot, Sprouts Farmers Market and Walmart.

• US Grocery Retail Market: Total Sales and Sales Growth
• In-Store CPG Unit Sales: YoY % Change
• US Grocery Market: Estimated Distribution of Grocery Retail Sales (%)
• US Online Food and Beverages: Total Retail Sales and Sales Growth
• US Online Share of Food Retail Spend (%)
• US Grocery E-Commerce: Top 10 Food and Beverage Categories by Sales
• US Food-at-Home Inflation and Total Inflation
• Average Weekly Grocery Spending Per US Household (USD)
• Respondents Who Have Observed Inflation: How They Have Changed, or Expect To Change, Their Shopping Habits in Grocery as a Result (% of Respondents)
• US Agricultural Imports: Type of Commodities (USD Bil.)
• US Agricultural Imports: By Countries (in USD Bil.)
• US: Single-Person Households and Population of Those Aged 65+ (Thousands)
• All Respondents: Which Retailers They Have Bought Food Products from in the Past Two Weeks by Average Age (Years) and Household Income (USD; April–July 2025)
• The US: African American, Asian-American and Hispanic or Latino Populations (Thousands)
• Share of Total US Food Spending: Food-at-Home vs. Food-Away-from-Home (%)
• Leading US Grocery Retailers: Total US Revenues and US Grocery Revenues (USD Bil.; Ranked by Grocery-Specific Revenues)
• US Grocery Retail Market Share (%)
• Leading US Grocery Retailers: Operating Margins (Ranked by FY24 Revenue; %)
• Key Comparable Metrics of Selected US Grocery Retailers (Ranked by FY24 Revenue)
• US: Major Grocery Retailers’ Store Numbers (Ranked by Number of Stores)
• Leading US Grocery Retailers: Total Gross Square Feet (Ranked by FY24 Revenue; Mil. of Sq. Ft.)
• Leading US Grocery Retailers: Sales Per Store (Ranked by FY24 Revenue; USD Mil.)
• Leading US Grocery Retailers: Sales Per Square Foot (Ranked by FY24 Revenue; USD)
• US Major Grocery Sector Retailers’ Store Traffic: YoY % Change (Ranked by FY24 Revenue)
• In-Store Grocery Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Bought Groceries In-Store in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)
• Online Grocery Shoppers: Retailers from Which They Have Bought Groceries Online in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)
• Respondents Who Expect To Buy Groceries Online in the Next 12 Months: Reasons for Buying Online vs. at a Physical Store (% of Respondents)
• Shoppers Who Do Not Expect to Buy Groceries Online in the Next 12 Months: Reasons Why They Do Not Expect to Buy Groceries Online in the Next 12 Months (% of Respondents)