Holiday 2025: US Consumer Survey and Retail Outlook—From Social to Smart: AI Becomes the New Driver of Holiday Discovery and Value

Where, when and how will US consumers spend for holiday 2025? We analyze findings from our proprietary holiday 2025 US consumer survey to offer critical insights on the shape of demand and consumers’ shopping expectations for the holiday season.

We present our holiday sales projections, examine how shopper behavior will differ this year from last, and assess how the current economic and inflationary environment will impact spending.

Uncover how AI, inflation and early shopping behaviors are reshaping the 2025 holiday retail landscape.

Read this report to discover answers to these and other questions:

• What is Coresight Research’s projection for 2025 holiday retail sales and how is inflation shaping expectations?
• Why are more consumers shopping earlier this season and which income groups are driving this shift?
• What are the key motivations behind consumer holiday budgets and how are tariffs influencing spending plans?
• How is generative AI transforming holiday shopping?
• Which retailers are expected to dominate and what matters most to consumers when choosing where and how to shop?

Data in this research report include: Holiday sales growth projections; consumer spending intentions by income group; tariff and inflation impacts on gift buying; AI and social media usage for gift discovery; product category and retailer preferences; online vs. offline shopping behaviors; credit and BNPL usage trends.

Introduction

Holiday Sales Projection

Timing: Consumers Expect To Pull Shopping Earlier

Overall Holiday Spending: Consumers Expect To Spend More

Factors Impacting Consumers’ Holiday Budgets

Tariffs: Three-Quarters of Shoppers Expect an Impact to

Holiday Shopping

Deal-Seeking and the Impacts of Inflation

Source of Gift Ideas: AI Emerges

AI Use: The First GenAI Holiday Shopping Season

Role of Social Media in Holiday Shopping

Purchase Expectations by Product Category

Where Consumers Expect To Shop

Online and Offline Are Neck-and-Neck for Holiday Shopping

Payment Preferences: Credit Cards Lead

BNPL: One-Quarter of Shoppers Are Likely To Buy Now, Pay Later

What We Think

Methodology

31-page PDF report

Abercrombie & Fitch, Amazon, Adidas, American Eagle Outfitters, Apple, Bath & Body Works, Best Buy, Burlington, Costco, CVS Health, Dillard’s, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, DSW, eBay, Etsy, Family Dollar, Famous Footwear, Finish Line, Foot Locker, Gap, Home Depot, H&M, JCPenney, Kohl’s, Lowe’s, Lululemon Athletica, Macy’s, Menards, Neiman Marcus, NIKE, Nordstrom, Old Navy, Publix, Ralph Lauren, RH, Saks Fifth Avenue, Sally Beauty, Sephora, Shein, Sprouts Farmers Market, Target, Skechers, Temu, TJX, Trader Joe’s, Tractor Supply Company, Ulta Beauty, Uniqlo, Urban Outfitters, Walgreens, Walmart, Wayfair and Zara.

1. Nominal Holiday-Quarter Retail Sales (ex. Gas and Auto): YoY % Change
2. When Consumers Plan Begin Holiday Shopping (% of Respondents)
3. Agreement with Statements on the Timing of Consumers’ Holiday Shopping (% of Respondents)
4. Spending Expectations Relative to Last Year (% of Respondents)
5. Spending Expectations Relative to Last Year, By Household Income (% of Respondents)
6. Spending Expectations for Products Relative to Last Year in Dollar Terms (% of Respondents)
7. Spending Expectations for Services Relative to Last Year in Dollar Terms (% of Respondents)
8. Relative Importance of Factors That Will Impact Consumers’ Holiday Budget in 2025 (% of Respondents)
9. How Much Tariffs Are Impacting Consumers’ Holiday Shopping Plans (% of Respondents)
10. How Much Tariffs Are Impacting Consumers’ Holiday Shopping Plans, By Household Income (% of Respondents)
11. How Consumers Will Adjust Their Holiday Spending, if Tariffs Increase The Price of Goods, If At All (% of Respondents)
12. Which Categories Consumers Would Cut Back On First, if Tariffs Increase The Price of Goods, If At All (% of Respondents)
13. Consumers’ Approach to Deal-Seeking During the Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
14. Impact of Product Price Increases This Holiday Season on Consumers’ Shopping Behavior (% of Respondents)
15. Where Consumers Expect To Find Holiday Gift Ideas (% of Respondents)
16. Agreement with Statements on Consumers’ Use of AI-Powered Shopping Tools for Holiday Shopping (% of Respondents)
17. Respondents Who Expect To Use AI-Powered Tools: Categories Where AI-Powered Tools Have or Will Most Influence Their Holiday Shopping (% of Respondents)
18. Agreement with Statements on Consumers’ Use of AI-Powered Shopping Tools for Holiday Shopping, By Household income (% of Respondents)
19. Agreement with Statements on Consumers’ Use of AI-Powered Shopping Tools for Holiday Shopping, By Age (% of Respondents)
20. Agreement with Selected Statements on the Use of Social Media as Part of the Holiday Shopping Process (% of Respondents)
21. Agreement with Selected Statements on the Use of Social Media as Part of the Holiday Shopping Process, By Age (% of Respondents)
22. What Consumers Expect To Buy as Holiday Gifts This Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
23. Net Percentage of Respondents Who Expect To Spend More on Each Category This Holiday Season Than Last Holiday Season (%)
24. Types of Retailer That Holiday Shoppers Expect To Shop for Holiday Gifts, Either Online or In-Store (% of Respondents)
25. Retailers That Consumers Expect To Make a Holiday Purchase From—Top Retailers (% of Respondents)
26. Retailers That Consumers Expect To Make a Holiday Purchase From—Further Retailers (% of Respondents)
27. Top Factors When Deciding Where To Shop for Holiday Products (% of Respondents)
28. Where Holiday Shoppers Expect To Buy Gifts This Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
29. Respondents Who Expect To Shop Online for the Holidays: Primary Reason To Shop Online (% of Respondents)
30. Payment Methods Consumers Expect To Use The Most During Holiday Shopping (% of Respondents)
31. Respondents Who Expect To Use Credit/Borrowing Option for Holiday Shopping: Share of Total Spending They Expect To Put on Credit/Borrowing This Year (% of Respondents)
32. Payment Methods That Consumers Expect To Use the Most During Holiday Shopping, by Household Income (% of Respondents)
33. Payment Methods Consumers Expect To Use The Most During Holiday Shopping, by Age (% of Respondents)
34. Likelihood of Using “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) Options This Holiday Season (% of Respondents)
35. Respondents Who Expect To Use BNPL Option for Holiday Shopping: Holiday Categories That They Have Purchased or Plan to Purchase Using BNPL Options (% of Respondents)
36. Likelihood of Using “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) Options This Holiday Season , By Household Income (% of Respondents)
37. Likelihood of Using “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) Options This Holiday Season, By Age (% of Respondents)