Market Navigator: UK Retail, Including E-Commerce—Consumer Constraints To Fuel Multi-Year Discounter Growth

Published – March 2024

Each Market Navigator report offers an in-depth, data-rich view of a retail, consumer or technology sector and is packed with data on sectors, segments, companies and consumers. Our analysts discuss at greater length the sector themes they are observing and the insights they are forming on their markets. We intend these definitive guides to serve as points of reference to those in the retail ecosystem, guiding readers’ strategic decision-making and assisting them in tapping opportunities and navigating disruption in retail and adjacent industries.

In this Market Navigator, Coresight Research explores the UK retail market, including e-commerce. Dive in today to gain insights into emerging ideas and opportunities, understand the growth trajectory of the market and explore the competitive landscape. You will discover key insights about market factors and themes, consumer behavior and preferences, the UK macro context and more. Key topics covered in this report include GenAI (generative artificial intelligence), the UK housing market, inflation, supply chains and Web3, among others.

Included with this Market Navigator: 

• Grab quick access to charts, data points and conclusions in the presentation download
• Access the data behind key charts and tables in the Excel download

Data in this research report include:

• UK retail market size and year-over-year growth rates, 2019–2028E
• Sales breakdowns by sector, 2018–2023
• Online sales, year-over-year growth and e-commerce penetration rates, 2019–2028E
• Revenues, operating margins and store portfolios of leading companies from across the UK retail market, 2018–2022
• Survey data on where UK consumers are shopping

Introduction

What We Think

• Improved Prospects for UK Retail in 2024
• Discounters To Deepen Their Footholds
• Opportunities Remain for Best-in-Class Incumbents
• Continued Downward Pressure on Operating Margins
• Consolidation Wave To Continue

Blue-Sky Thinking

• The Potential of Web3 in Supply Chains
• GenAI for Accelerated Product Development and Improved Customer Service
• Increased Collaboration Through “Tech as a Service”

The UK Retail Market

• Market Scale and Opportunity
• Breakdown of Total Retail Sales
• Online Market
• Market Factors

The Companies

• Competitive Landscape
• Market Share
• Operating Margins
• Key Comparable Metrics
• Store Numbers and Changes
• Benchmarking to BEST

Where Consumers Are Shopping

• Online (All Categories)
• Grocery (In-Store)

Themes We Are Watching

• Mixed Profit Performances Amid Uncertain Demand and Rising Costs
• M&A
• Diverse Revenue Streams
• Incremental Shift Toward Discount Retail Formats
• Retail Crime

Retail Innovators

• ReturnGo
• Stuart
• Trigo

Macro Context

• The Coresight Research View on the UK Consumer Economy
• Inflation, Wages and Unemployment
• Real Disposable Income
• Savings Rate
• The Housing Market
• Consumer Spending

Notes

Appendix: About the Coresight Research BEST Framework

Appendix: About the Coresight Research RESET Framework

45-page PDF report

Aldi, Amazon, Asda, ASOS, Associated British Foods, B&M, Boohoo, Boots, Currys , eBay, Frasers, Harrods, H&M, JD Sports, John Lewis, J Sainsbury, Lidl, Marks & Spencer, Next, Shein, Selfridges, Tesco, TJX Companies, Wm Morrison Supermarkets

1. A Linear Supply Chain vs. a Web3-Enabled, Decentralized, Intelligent Supply Chain
2. UK Retail Market (Ex. Gasoline and Automobiles): Total Sales (Left Axis; GBP Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
3. UK Retail Sales: Real YoY % Change
4. UK Retail Market by Channel: Online and Offline Sales (GBP Bil.), Growth (YoY % Change) and Penetration (%)
5. UK Retail Sales by Sector: Sales (GBP Bil.) and Growth (YoY % Change)
6. UK Online Retail Sales (Left Axis; USD Bil.) and Sales Growth (Right Axis; YoY % Change)
7. UK Online Retail Sales by Sector, 2018 to 2023: Sales (GBP Bil.), Growth (YoY % Change) and Share of Total Online Sales (%)
8. UK: Bank Rate, 2018–2024E (%)
9. UK: Impact of Income Tax Threshold Freezes, 2023–2029
10. UK: Real Retail Sales Growth (YoY), Retail Inflation (for Total Retail ex. Automotive Fuel) and Overall Inflation, 2023 (%)
11. Leading Offline and Online Retailers: UK Revenues (GBP Bil.)
12. Selected Leading UK Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms: Share of the UK Retail Market (%)
13. Selected Leading UK Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms: UK Operating Margins (Ordered by FY22 UK Revenue)
14. Selected Leading UK Retailers and E-Commerce Platforms (Ordered by FY2022 UK Revenue): Key Comparable Metrics
15. Leading UK Retailers: UK Store Numbers (Ranked by Store Count)
16. The BEST Framework
17. BEST Framework and Benchmarking
18. UK Consumers: Retailers from Which They Have Purchased Online in the Past 12 Months (% of Respondents)
19. UK Consumers: Retailers from Which They Regularly Purchase Groceries In-Store For Everyday Use (% of Respondents)
20. Selected Leading Public UK Retailers: Net Profit Results and Financial Performance Commentaries
21. Selected Notable M&A Transactions in the UK Retail Sector in 2023
22. Estimated UK Retail Media Advertising Revenue (GBP Bil.)
23. UK Consumers: Which of These They Are Doing Because of the Increases in the Cost of Living (% of Respondents)
24. UK Grocery Market: Share Breakdown by Retailer (%)
25. UK: Leading Fashion Stores Among Gen Zers, Ranked by Brand Usage in 2022
26. UK Unemployment Rate (Right Axis; %), Inflation (Left Axis; YoY % Change) and Average Weekly Earnings (Left Axis; YoY % Change)
27. UK Inflation in Food and Energy (YoY % Change)
28. UK Real Disposable Income Per Capita: YoY and Yo2Y % Change
29. UK Household Savings Rate (%)
30. UK House Price Index (YoY % Change)
31. Housing Transaction Volumes in the UK (Left Axis; Thous.) and YoY % Change (Right Axis)
32. UK Nominal and Real Consumer Spending Growth (YoY % Change)