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2015 Holiday Recap

Consumer & Retailer Behavior – Holiday 2015
• Shoppers began their holiday shopping early this year – nearly half
started shopping before the Black Friday weekend
• Online has become a major channel for holiday shopping, with 6 in
10 of those surveyed saying they will shop mainly online
• 4 in 10 shoppers surveyed planned to spend more than $500 and
33% of young shoppers planned will increase their spending
compared with last year

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2015 Holiday Homestretch

Cyber Monday leads the weekend as the biggest day for sales with
$3.1 billion in sales
2. Black Friday performance suggests consumer is in good shape;
Apparel category remains under pressure while deals focused
around electronics
3. Retailers generally pleased with their Black Friday performances
despite weak traffic
4. Black Friday metrics favor e-commerce as estimates suggest store
sales to be flat to down slightly with online sales up ~10%

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Disruptors – Physical and Digital

– CVS Health: 37% of 2014 capex was on technology and
other corporate initiatives
– Nordstrom: 35% of 2014 capex; plans to spend $4.3 billion
(5% of sales) over next five years
– Walmart: 29% of 2014 US capex; spending “$1.2–$1.5
billion in e-commerce websites and mobile commerce
applications”
– Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards interconnected
retail and technology

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Top Ideas on Global Retail and Tech

FBIC TOP 20 RETAIL & TECH TRENDS
1. Ecommercification: More Convenient Payment
2. In-Store Shopping Becomes More Purposeful
3. Webrooming
4. Increasingly Personalized Shopping
5. At-Home Beauty Devices Limit Salon Visits
6. Geofencing and Beacons Enable Location-based Marketing

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Doing Business in China

$1.63 billion in sales are made in the first 38 minutes
• 42.6% of sales are made via mobile devices
• The first domestic order is delivered in 15 minutes
• The first cross-border order is delivered in 2 hours
• In 2014, Alibaba offered an 11.11 shopping festival to global shoppers

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2015 Back-to-School Outlook

Consumer purchase mentality—What do we need now? A Just in Time Shopper
Macy’s reacts to this shopping behavior by rolling out same-day delivery to additional stores
Look for traditional shopping seasons to continue to blur
Black Friday style sales in July
Harder for retailers to post sales and earnings gains.
Continued IT investments—Mobile, Click & Collect, Personalization, Omnichannel—all mandatory to maintain share
Most categories hovering in deflationary territory

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Retail Update

Retail Update 2015
April 2015 Total Online Unique Visitors Amazon Sites Captures Over 69% of Online Audience.
Amazon Attracts Millennials, Families and High Income Households.
More Than 50% of Households Have Income <$75,000 and 44% Have Children.

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Top Ideas on Global Retail & Tech

FBIC TOP 15 RETAIL & TECH TRENDS
1. Apps are dominating smartphones
2. Gamification reaches fast adoption
3. Smartphones are becoming the hub for digital beauty
4. Social media becomes robust source of consumer data
5. Digital advertising to dominate next year & More…..

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1Q2015 Recap

Current Retail Business Environment
1. Gas Did Not Stay Below $2 per Gallon
2. April US Retail Sales Flat, Showing Slow Recovery
3. Unemployment at Seven-Year Low; Stores Cut Jobs and More

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US Housing Market Chartbook

• Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in February, compared with an increase of 0.9
percent in January, over the preceding month.
• On a year on year basis, the Real DPI per capital in February increased by 3.2
percent, slightly lower than the 3.4 percent in January.
• In general, the Real DPI shows a good sign for the economy

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Macroeconomic Chartbook

• For the last 12 months, the all-item index was unchanged before seasonal
adjustment.
• Over the last 12 months the food index rose 3.0 percent and the index for all items
(excluding food and energy) increased 1.7 percent. These increases were offset by
an 18.8-percent decline in the energy index.
• Indexes that have risen over the past 12 months include shelter, medical care, and
new vehicles. Indexes that have declined include airline fares, used cars and trucks,
and apparel.

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