US Gas Prices See a Double-Digit Increase, but Discretionary Spending Looks Solid

Executive Summary

• US gas prices are seeing a double-digit increase year over year, threatening to pressure consumers’ disposable incomes.
• However, consumer sentiment and retail sales have so far held up, as tax reforms and solid economic growth provide an otherwise-benign environment.
• We remain bullish on the prospects for US retail in 2018. We expect total retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline to rise by around 4.4% to $3.6 trillion.