Holiday 2020: UK Retail Outlook Update—November Lockdown To Slam Retail

What's Inside

We provide an update on our estimates for the UK retail outlook for holiday 2020, following UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s announcement on October 31 of a four-week lockdown in England.

This report covers the following key content:

• The imminent coronavirus lockdown to be imposed in England by the UK government will be effective from November 5 to December 2—and the nonessential stores forced to close under the new measures as well as the expected blow to UK retailers
• How first-lockdown trends inform our predictions for the upcoming second lockdown—with the potential key differentiator of underlying holiday demand for gifting purchases this time round
• Our predictions for a post-lockdown December bounce and implications of excess inventory for retailers into 2021
• The impacts of a second lockdown on retail bankruptcies and company voluntary arrangements—including our expectations for a renewed wave of UK store closures

We provide a UK Covid-19 timeline of key developments in the appendix.

This report provides an update to our previously published Holiday 2020: UK Retail Outlook from October, which is free to access.

Click here to read our Holiday 2020: US Retail Outlook report.